Cap on gambling loss deductions repealed before 2027?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 90% cap on gambling loss deductions enacted in the 2025 "Big Beautiful Bill" is fully repealed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Current leader
- No 82%
- Leader 24h
- -2%
- 24h volume
- 485.8
- Liquidity
- 5.8K
Top outcomes
2 outcomes
No
82%
-2% 24h
Yes
19%
+2% 24h
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 90% cap on gambling loss deductions enacted in the 2025 "Big Beautiful Bill" is fully repealed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To qualify as a repeal, the cap must be entirely remove any cap limiting gambling loss deductions to below 100%. Modifications—such as increasing the limit, delaying implementation or changing how it is calculated will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Living timeline · 1 significant update
Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet
Odds chart
Probability over time
Odds chart showing latest No probability of 86%.
Story so far
Needs a refreshNo story summary has been written yet.
No major update has changed the story in 20 days.
Latest update
Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet
Yes moved higher from 10.5% to 18.5% (+8.0 points) between 2026-06-23T19:22:14.246Z and 2026-06-24T19:22:14.246Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.
Why this matters
Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.
Known catalysts
- No catalyst has been confirmed yet.
Unresolved questions
- No open questions have been logged yet.
People and institutions to watch
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Source trail
No public sources are attached yet.
Living timeline
Significant updates
The "Yes" outcome in "Cap on gambling loss deductions repealed before 2027?" made a sharp move from 10.5% to 18.5% between 2026-06-23T19:22:14.246Z and 2026-06-24T19:22:14.246Z. PolySays has not found a clear public news source, official statement, or other confirmed catalyst that explains the timing of this move. The move may reflect private interpretation, social discussion, liquidity conditions, or information that has not yet appeared in reliable public sources.
What changed
The market repriced by +8.0 points, but the public narrative has not caught up with a confirmed explanation.
What to watch next
Watch for official statements, later reporting, social posts that become verifiable public context, and whether volume or the new probability level holds in later snapshots.
Sources
No external sources are attached yet.