Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any line of either Nord Stream 1 or Nord Stream 2 delivers natural gas to Germany or any EU member state in commercial quantities at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Current leader
- No 96%
- Leader 24h
- 0%
- 24h volume
- 271.5
- Liquidity
- 17.1K
Top outcomes
2 outcomes
No
96%
0% 24h
Yes
4%
0% 24h
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any line of either Nord Stream 1 or Nord Stream 2 delivers natural gas to Germany or any EU member state in commercial quantities at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"Commercial quantities" refers to sustained, measurable flows of gas intended for end-user distribution. Test flows, pressure tests, or symbolic gas transfers not tied to actual supply operations will not count. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Living timeline · 0 significant updates
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Odds chart
Probability over time
Odds chart showing latest No probability of 97%.
Story so far
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Latest update
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Why this matters
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Known catalysts
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Unresolved questions
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People and institutions to watch
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Source trail
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Living timeline