Maduro Prison Time?
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy.
- Current leader
- no prison time 34%
- Largest 24h move
- at least 60 years in prison -8%
- 24h volume
- 325
- Liquidity
- 71.1K
Top candidates
5 outcomes
no prison time
34%
0% 24h
at least 60 years in prison
25%
-8% 24h
between 20 and 40 years in prison
19%
0% 24h
less than 20 years in prison
12%
-1% 24h
between 40 and 60 years in prison
8%
+1% 24h
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
Resolves No
If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time." If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time." If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Read the complete resolution rules
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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Odds chart
Candidate probability over time
Odds chart showing latest no prison time probability of 34%.
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