Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
- Current leader
- 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections 27%
- Largest 24h move
- exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections +2%
- 24h volume
- 1.6K
- Liquidity
- 373.8K
Top candidates
11 outcomes
47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections
27%
-1% 24h
exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections
18%
+2% 24h
exactly 49 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections
16%
0% 24h
exactly 50 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections
16%
+1% 24h
exactly 48 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections
12%
0% 24h
Show all outcomes
exactly 52 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections
9%
-1%
exactly 53 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections
3%
+0%
exactly 55 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections
2%
0%
exactly 54 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections
2%
-0%
57 or more Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections
1%
+0%
exactly 56 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections
1%
0%
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections. This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026.
If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources. If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
Read the complete resolution rules
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC.
This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
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Odds chart
Candidate probability over time
Odds chart showing latest 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections probability of 23%.
Story so far
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Latest update
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Why this matters
Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.
Known catalysts
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Unresolved questions
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People and institutions to watch
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Source trail
No public sources are attached yet.
Living timeline