Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run by December 31, 2026?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Gavin Newsom officially announces that he is running for U.S.
- Current leader
- No 89%
- Leader 24h
- 0%
- 24h volume
- 556.9
- Liquidity
- 15.2K
Top outcomes
2 outcomes
No
89%
0% 24h
Yes
12%
0% 24h
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Gavin Newsom officially announces that he is running for U.S.
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For the purpose of resolving this market, an announcement by Gavin Newsom will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether he actually filed a nomination to run, or whether he actually files a nomination to run in the future.
President in the 2028 presidential election, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Gavin Newsom (e.g., via speech, social media, etc.) or his official or legal representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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Odds chart
Probability over time
Odds chart showing latest No probability of 85%.
Story so far
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Why this matters
Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.
Known catalysts
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Unresolved questions
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People and institutions to watch
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Source trail
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Living timeline