How low will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or below the listed value for any date between January 1 and December 31, 2026.
- Current leader
- 35% in 2026 33%
- Largest 24h move
- 35% in 2026 +2%
- 24h volume
- 250.7
- Liquidity
- 20K
Top candidates
4 outcomes
35% in 2026
33%
+2% 24h
30% in 2026
8%
0% 24h
25% in 2026
7%
0% 24h
20% in 2026
3%
-0% 24h
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or below the listed value for any date between January 1 and December 31, 2026.
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator,, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date.
Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used. If the approval rating for December 31 is not published by January 4, 2027, 12:00 PM ET (noon), this market will resolve according to all previous datapoints.
Living timeline · 0 significant updates
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Odds chart
Candidate probability over time
Odds chart showing latest 35% in 2026 probability of 29%.
Story so far
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Why this matters
Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.
Known catalysts
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Unresolved questions
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People and institutions to watch
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Source trail
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Living timeline