activePolitics+1% 24h

Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

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Current leader
No 90%
Leader 24h
+1%
24h volume
464.9
Liquidity
75.3K

Top outcomes

2 outcomes

No

90%

+1% 24h

Yes

10%

-1% 24h

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Official description

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Resolves Yes

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Resolves No

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Probability over time

Odds chart showing latest No probability of 91%.

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