GOP uses 'Nuclear Option' to break filibuster by December 31, 2026?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a motion to invoke cloture and end debate on any part of the legislative process, with such a cloture motion receiving Yea votes from fewer than three-fifths of the Senators by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Current leader
- No 85%
- Leader 24h
- -1%
- Volume
- 5K
- Liquidity
- 9.5K
Top outcomes
2 outcomes
No
85%
-1% 24h
Yes
16%
+1% 24h
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a motion to invoke cloture and end debate on any part of the legislative process, with such a cloture motion receiving Yea votes from fewer than three-fifths of the Senators by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". Confirmations are considered part of the Senate’s “advice and consent” function, not part of the Senate’s “legislative process,” and will therefore not count towards this market's resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government.
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Probability over time
Odds chart showing latest No probability of 86%.
Story so far
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Why this matters
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Known catalysts
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Unresolved questions
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People and institutions to watch
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Source trail
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Living timeline