Who will Trump pardon before 2027?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Current leader
- Daniel Penny before 2027 52%
- Largest 24h move
- Daniel Penny before 2027 -14%
- 24h volume
- 2.4K
- Liquidity
- 167.3K
Top candidates
27 outcomes
Daniel Penny before 2027
52%
-14% 24h
Donald Brodie before 2027
52%
-2% 24h
Matt Gaetz before 2027
50%
-2% 24h
Roger Stone before 2027
49%
+5% 24h
Ryan Salame before 2027
44%
-7% 24h
Show all outcomes
Stefan Brodie before 2027
39%
+1%
Bob Menendez before 2027
30%
-2%
Steve Bannon before 2027
16%
-0%
Keonne Rodriguez before 2027
14%
+1%
Eric Adams before 2027
14%
0%
Martin Shkreli before 2027
10%
0%
Joe Exotic "The Tiger King" before 2027
9%
-0%
Elizabeth Holmes before 2027
8%
0%
Antoine Massey before 2027
7%
0%
Ghislaine Maxwell before 2027
7%
0%
Julian Assange before 2027
7%
0%
Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027
7%
0%
Nicolas Maduro before 2027
7%
0%
Edward Snowden before 2027
6%
0%
Roger Ver before 2027
6%
0%
Hunter Biden before 2027
6%
0%
Diddy before 2027
6%
0%
Derek Chauvin before 2027
5%
0%
Himself before 2027
5%
0%
Young Thug before 2027
4%
0%
Elon Musk before 2027
4%
0%
Do Kwon before 2027
3%
0%
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Living timeline · 3 significant updates
Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet
Odds chart
Candidate probability over time
Odds chart showing latest Daniel Penny before 2027 probability of 34%.
Story so far
Needs a refreshNo event-level story summary has been written yet.
No major update has changed the story in 20 days.
Latest update
Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet
Trump pardon Bob Menendez before 2027 moved lower from 40.9% to 29.5% (-11.4 points) between 2026-06-23T00:00:07.000Z and 2026-06-24T19:22:16.803Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.
Why this matters
Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.
Known catalysts
- No catalyst has been confirmed yet.
Unresolved questions
- No open questions have been logged yet.
People and institutions to watch
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Source trail
No public sources are attached yet.
Living timeline
Significant updates
The "Trump pardon Bob Menendez before 2027" outcome in "Who will Trump pardon before 2027?" made a sharp move from 40.9% to 29.5% between 2026-06-23T00:00:07.000Z and 2026-06-24T19:22:16.803Z. PolySays has not found a clear public news source, official statement, or other confirmed catalyst that explains the timing of this move. The move may reflect private interpretation, social discussion, liquidity conditions, or information that has not yet appeared in reliable public sources.
What changed
The market repriced by -11.4 points, but the public narrative has not caught up with a confirmed explanation.
What to watch next
Watch for official statements, later reporting, social posts that become verifiable public context, and whether volume or the new probability level holds in later snapshots.
Sources
No external sources are attached yet.