Living market coverage

Prediction-market movement explanations

The newest sourced PolySays updates about meaningful odds changes, possible catalysts, unresolved signals, and what to watch next.

  1. Odds SurgeHow many Republican House Incumbents will not win their Primary?

    4-6 GOP House incumbent-loss market rises after new primary-season coverage

    The 4-6 Republican House incumbent primary-loss outcome rose from 44.35% to 48.00% over 24 hours, as recent coverage highlighted an already difficult 2026 primary season for incumbents.

  2. Unexplained Move5kt meteor strike in 2026?

    Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet

    Yes moved lower from 35.0% to 29.5% (-5.5 points) between 2026-06-23T18:45:46.297Z and 2026-06-24T18:45:46.297Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

  3. Unexplained MoveWhat floor price will Pudgy Penguins hit before 2027?

    Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet

    Pudgy Penguins floor price reach 10 ETH before 2027 moved higher from 41.0% to 49.0% (+8.0 points) between 2026-06-23T00:00:04.000Z and 2026-06-24T18:45:46.299Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

  4. Unexplained MoveCanada Annual Inflation 2026

    Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet

    Canada's 2026 inflation be between 3.0% and 3.4% moved higher from 31.3% to 41.9% (+10.7 points) between 2026-06-23T18:45:46.299Z and 2026-06-24T18:45:46.299Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

  5. Unexplained MoveCanada Annual Inflation 2026

    Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet

    Canada's 2026 inflation be between 3.5% and 3.9% moved higher from 33.7% to 44.0% (+10.4 points) between 2026-06-23T00:00:08.000Z and 2026-06-24T18:45:46.300Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

  6. Odds PlungeHarvey Weinstein prison time?

    Weinstein 10-20 year sentencing line falls after prosecutors drop remaining rape case

    The 10-20 year outcome moved from 4.3% to 0.45% over 24 hours as reports said New York prosecutors dropped Weinstein's outstanding rape charge, avoiding a fourth trial.

  7. Unexplained MoveSpain snap election called by...?

    Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet

    Spain snap election called by August 31, 2026 moved lower from 44.5% to 9.0% (-35.5 points) between 2026-06-24T23:30:05.172Z and 2026-06-26T01:20:05.412Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

  8. Unexplained MoveSpain snap election called by...?

    Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet

    Spain snap election called by August 31, 2026 moved lower from 49.5% to 9.0% (-40.5 points) between 2026-06-25T01:20:05.412Z and 2026-06-26T01:20:05.412Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

  9. Unexplained MoveIPOs before 2027?

    Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet

    Databricks IPO before 2027 moved higher from 17.0% to 22.0% (+5.0 points) between 2026-06-23T19:22:15.527Z and 2026-06-24T19:22:15.527Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

  10. Unexplained MoveGuam Governor Republican Primary Winner

    Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet

    Vicente Ada moved lower from 47.5% to 39.5% (-8.0 points) between 2026-06-24T18:45:39.615Z and 2026-06-24T19:22:22.239Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

  11. Unexplained MoveGuam Governor Republican Primary Winner

    Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet

    Douglas Moylan moved lower from 10.3% to 2.5% (-7.8 points) between 2026-06-23T19:22:22.239Z and 2026-06-24T19:22:22.239Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

  12. Unexplained MoveGuam Governor Republican Primary Winner

    Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet

    Frank F. Blas Jr. moved lower from 52.0% to 44.0% (-8.0 points) between 2026-06-24T18:19:01.809Z and 2026-06-24T19:22:22.240Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

  13. Unexplained MoveGuam Governor Republican Primary Winner

    Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet

    Frank F. Blas Jr. moved lower from 54.5% to 44.0% (-10.5 points) between 2026-06-24T18:45:39.616Z and 2026-06-24T19:22:22.240Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

  14. Unexplained MoveGuam Governor Republican Primary Winner

    Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet

    Charlie Hermosa moved lower from 29.0% to 8.2% (-20.9 points) between 2026-06-23T19:22:22.240Z and 2026-06-24T19:22:22.240Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

  15. Unexplained MoveWho will be UFC Heavyweight champion at the end of 2026?

    Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet

    Tyrell Fortune moved lower from 43.7% to 28.1% (-15.6 points) between 2026-06-23T00:00:08.000Z and 2026-06-24T18:45:46.334Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

  16. Unexplained MoveWho will be UFC Heavyweight champion at the end of 2026?

    Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet

    Rizvan Kuniev moved lower from 41.4% to 18.6% (-22.9 points) between 2026-06-23T00:00:04.000Z and 2026-06-24T18:45:46.335Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

  17. Unexplained MoveWho will be UFC Heavyweight champion at the end of 2026?

    Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet

    Waldo Cortes Acosta moved lower from 40.4% to 22.6% (-17.8 points) between 2026-06-23T00:00:11.000Z and 2026-06-24T18:45:46.335Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

  18. Unexplained MoveUS recognize Somaliland by...?

    Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet

    Yes moved lower from 25.6% to 17.4% (-8.2 points) between 2026-06-25T04:30:05.332Z and 2026-06-26T04:30:05.332Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

  19. Unexplained MoveWho will Trump pardon before 2027?

    Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet

    Trump pardon Daniel Penny before 2027 moved lower from 61.0% to 51.5% (-9.5 points) between 2026-06-23T19:22:16.802Z and 2026-06-24T19:22:16.802Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

  20. Unexplained MoveWho will Trump pardon before 2027?

    Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet

    Trump pardon Bob Menendez before 2027 moved lower from 40.9% to 29.5% (-11.4 points) between 2026-06-23T00:00:07.000Z and 2026-06-24T19:22:16.803Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

  21. Odds SurgeWhat will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

    Fed 4.5% upper-bound market rises after June 24 snapshots

    The market for the Fed’s upper bound reaching 4.5% or higher before 2027 rose from 5.25% to 9.15%, a 3.9-point move, between 18:45:35Z and 19:22:18Z on June 24.

  22. Odds PlungeWhat will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

    Fed 4.25% upper-bound market drops 4.15 points over 24 hours

    The Yes price for the Fed upper bound reaching 4.25% or higher before 2027 fell from 36.3% to 32.15% between June 23 and June 24.

  23. Unexplained MoveNE-02 House Election Winner

    Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet

    the Democratic Party moved higher from 76.5% to 82.5% (+6.0 points) between 2026-06-23T00:00:13.000Z and 2026-06-24T19:22:23.498Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

  24. Odds PlungeWho will win the 2026 Fields Medal?

    Hong Wang Fields Medal odds dip after NYU professorship headline

    Hong Wang’s 2026 Fields Medal odds moved from 84.5% to 77.5% between June 23 and June 24, a 7.0-point drop. A later matched headline notes Wang landed a prestigious NYU professorship, but the source does not confirm that caused the move.

  25. Unexplained MoveWho will win the 2026 Fields Medal?

    Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet

    Vesselin Dimitrov moved higher from 41.5% to 49.5% (+8.0 points) between 2026-06-23T18:45:47.499Z and 2026-06-24T18:45:47.499Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

  26. Unexplained MoveEurozone Annual Inflation 2026

    Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet

    the Eurozone's 2026 Annual Inflation be between 2.8% and 3.0% moved higher from 36.8% to 42.4% (+5.5 points) between 2026-06-23T00:00:04.000Z and 2026-06-24T18:45:47.502Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

  27. Unexplained MoveWho will become a UFC champion in 2026?

    Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet

    Alexandre Pantoja moved lower from 51.0% to 45.5% (-5.5 points) between 2026-06-24T18:45:44.920Z and 2026-06-24T19:22:27.523Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

  28. Unexplained MoveWho will become a UFC champion in 2026?

    Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet

    Sean O'Malley moved lower from 7.5% to 0.4% (-7.1 points) between 2026-06-23T19:22:27.523Z and 2026-06-24T19:22:27.523Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

  29. Unexplained MoveWho will become a UFC champion in 2026?

    Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet

    Arman Tsarukyan moved lower from 42.5% to 20.0% (-22.5 points) between 2026-06-23T00:00:08.000Z and 2026-06-24T19:22:27.523Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

  30. Unexplained MoveDreamcash FDV above ___ one day after launch?

    Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet

    Dreamcash FDV above $300M one day after launch moved lower from 34.5% to 24.5% (-10.0 points) between 2026-06-23T00:00:04.000Z and 2026-06-24T18:45:51.581Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

  31. Unexplained MoveIPOs before 2027?

    Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet

    WHOOP IPO before 2027 moved higher from 17.0% to 33.0% (+16.0 points) between 2026-06-23T00:00:11.000Z and 2026-06-24T19:22:15.528Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

  32. Unexplained MoveWill OpenAI launch a token before 2027?

    Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet

    Yes moved higher from 2.2% to 13.5% (+11.3 points) between 2026-06-23T19:22:15.529Z and 2026-06-24T19:22:15.529Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

  33. Unexplained MoveWho will be the next Secretary-General of the UN?

    Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet

    Rebeca Grynspan moved lower from 29.3% to 20.3% (-9.1 points) between 2026-06-23T00:00:07.000Z and 2026-06-24T19:22:22.252Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

  34. Unexplained MoveWhat will Based prediction market revenue hit before 2027?

    Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet

    Based Polymarket revenue hit $2M before 2027 moved higher from 33.5% to 41.0% (+7.5 points) between 2026-06-23T19:22:22.254Z and 2026-06-24T19:22:22.254Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

  35. Odds PlungeHow high will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?

    47% Trump approval market drops as low-approval poll coverage circulates

    The 47% approval outcome fell from 14.6% to 6.8%, a 7.8-point move between June 23 and June 24. A matched news item cites polling coverage describing Trump approval near a historic low.

  36. Unexplained MoveCDL Regular Season - Top 4 Finish

    Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet

    Carolina Royal Ravens finish in the top 4 of the CDL Regular Season moved lower from 38.6% to 1.5% (-37.1 points) between 2026-06-23T00:00:08.000Z and 2026-06-24T18:45:46.353Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

  37. Unexplained MoveHow much will Coinbase token sales raise in 2026?

    Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet

    Over $400M raised on Coinbase in 2026 moved lower from 49.9% to 39.9% (-10.0 points) between 2026-06-23T18:45:46.353Z and 2026-06-24T18:45:46.353Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

  38. Unexplained MoveHow much will Coinbase token sales raise in 2026?

    Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet

    Over $800M raised on Coinbase in 2026 moved higher from 41.0% to 47.5% (+6.5 points) between 2026-06-23T18:45:46.353Z and 2026-06-24T18:45:46.353Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

  39. Unexplained MoveHow much will Coinbase token sales raise in 2026?

    Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet

    Over $600M raised on Coinbase in 2026 moved higher from 44.5% to 50.5% (+6.0 points) between 2026-06-23T18:45:46.353Z and 2026-06-24T18:45:46.353Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

  40. Unexplained MoveUS military action against Cuba by...?

    Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet

    Yes moved lower from 46.5% to 40.5% (-6.0 points) between 2026-06-23T18:45:47.489Z and 2026-06-24T18:45:47.489Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

  41. Unexplained MoveWill Felix Protocol launch a token by ___ ?

    Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet

    Yes moved lower from 53.3% to 33.1% (-20.2 points) between 2026-06-23T19:22:10.082Z and 2026-06-24T19:22:10.082Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

  42. Odds SurgeMichigan Democratic Senate Primary Winner

    El-Sayed rises 4 points as new endorsement coverage lands

    Abdul El-Sayed’s Michigan Democratic Senate primary odds moved from 72.5% to 76.5% over 24 hours, while recent coverage highlighted endorsements from Sen. Chris Van Hollen and Hasan Piker.

  43. Unexplained MoveWhat price will Hyperliquid hit in 2026?

    Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet

    Hyperliquid dip to $40 by December 31, 2026 moved lower from 63.0% to 51.5% (-11.5 points) between 2026-06-23T19:22:18.288Z and 2026-06-24T19:22:18.288Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

  44. Unexplained MoveWhat price will Hyperliquid hit in 2026?

    Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet

    Hyperliquid reach $90 by December 31, 2026 moved higher from 31.5% to 37.0% (+5.5 points) between 2026-06-24T18:45:35.650Z and 2026-06-24T19:22:18.288Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

  45. Unexplained MoveWhat price will Hyperliquid hit in 2026?

    Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet

    Hyperliquid reach $90 by December 31, 2026 moved lower from 56.0% to 37.0% (-19.0 points) between 2026-06-23T00:00:12.000Z and 2026-06-24T19:22:18.288Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

  46. Unexplained MoveWhich artists will release new albums in 2026?

    Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet

    Lil Uzi Vert release an album in 2026 moved higher from 50.5% to 55.5% (+5.0 points) between 2026-06-23T19:22:26.219Z and 2026-06-24T19:22:26.219Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

  47. Unexplained MoveWhat will Gold (GC) settle at in June?

    Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet

    Gold (GC) settle at <$3,800 in June moved higher from 2.3% to 9.2% (+6.9 points) between 2026-06-23T19:22:26.220Z and 2026-06-24T19:22:26.220Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

  48. Unexplained MoveWhat will Gold (GC) settle at in June?

    Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet

    Gold (GC) settle at $3,800-$4,200 in June moved higher from 52.0% to 78.8% (+26.8 points) between 2026-06-23T00:00:04.000Z and 2026-06-24T19:22:26.220Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

  49. Unexplained MoveWhat will Gold (GC) settle at in June?

    Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet

    Gold (GC) settle at $4,200-$4,600 in June moved lower from 42.1% to 8.9% (-33.2 points) between 2026-06-23T00:00:08.000Z and 2026-06-24T19:22:26.220Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

  50. Odds SurgeWhat will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

    4.0% end-2026 Fed-rate odds rose 3.45 points over 24 hours

    Polymarket reported the 4.0% end-2026 Fed-rate outcome rising from 21.75% to 25.2% between June 23 and June 24, while a Fed stress-test release offered only contextual macro news.