activePolitics47% in 2026 +7% 24h

How high will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or higher than the listed value for any date between January 1 and December 31, 2026.

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Current leader
46% in 2026 15%
Largest 24h move
47% in 2026 +7%
24h volume
35.2
Liquidity
16.6K

Top candidates

7 outcomes

46% in 2026

15%

-5% 24h

49% in 2026

12%

+0% 24h

45% in 2026

10%

-2% 24h

44% in 2026

7%

-0% 24h

47% in 2026

7%

+7% 24h

Show all outcomes

48% in 2026

6%

-3%

50% in 2026

2%

-0%

Market rules, made readable

Official description

How this market is decided

See what is changing

Resolves Yes

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or higher than the listed value for any date between January 1 and December 31, 2026.

Resolves No

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator,, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date.

Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used. If the approval rating for December 31 is not published by January 4, 2027, 12:00 PM ET (noon), this market will resolve according to all previous datapoints.

Living timeline · 1 significant update

47% Trump approval market drops as low-approval poll coverage circulates

Odds chart

Candidate probability over time

Odds chart showing latest 46% in 2026 probability of 7%.

Story so far

Needs a refresh

The 47% Trump approval outcome has weakened sharply. From June 23 to June 24, the Yes price fell from 14.6% to 6.8%, alongside a matched news item about polling coverage describing Trump approval near a historic low.

No major update has changed the story in 20 days.

Latest update

47% Trump approval market drops as low-approval poll coverage circulates

The 47% approval outcome fell from 14.6% to 6.8%, a 7.8-point move between June 23 and June 24. A matched news item cites polling coverage describing Trump approval near a historic low.

Why this matters

Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.

Known catalysts

  • A matched news item appears to have circulated polling coverage describing Trump approval near a historic low.
  • The price move may reflect market reaction to that coverage, but the exact causal link is not confirmed.

Unresolved questions

  • Whether the polling coverage directly drove the plunge or merely coincided with it.
  • Whether additional polls or news items will reinforce or reverse the move.
  • Whether the 47% threshold remains plausible given the latest polling trend.

People and institutions to watch

TrumpTrump approval rating 47% in 2026 marketPolling coverage

Source trail

No public sources are attached yet.

Living timeline

Significant updates

  1. The market for Trump’s approval rating reaching 47% in 2026 moved sharply lower, with the Yes price dropping from 14.6% to 6.8% between 2026-06-23T00:00:12.000Z and 2026-06-24T19:22:22.255Z. The supplied movement data attributes the change to CLOB price history over the period. The matched source is contextual rather than directly causal: it is Google News RSS coverage of a Strength In Numbers item saying a poll found only 18% thought the U.S. achieved its goals in Iran while Trump’s approval hovered at a historic low. That polling coverage may have coincided with weaker expectations for a 47% approval print, but the supplied context does not confirm that it caused the market move.

    What changed

    Yes odds for Trump’s approval rating hitting 47% in 2026 fell from 0.146 to 0.068, a -0.078 move over the supplied window.

    What to watch next

    Watch for additional national approval polling and whether future poll aggregates confirm or contradict the low-approval framing in the matched coverage.

    Sources