activeElectionsAbdul El-Sayed -10% 24h

Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Winner

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Michigan.

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Current leader
Abdul El-Sayed 83%
Largest 24h move
Abdul El-Sayed -10%
24h volume
7.5K
Liquidity
245.2K

Top candidates

9 outcomes

Abdul El-Sayed

83%

-10% 24h

Haley Stevens

18%

+9% 24h

Mallory McMorrow

0%

0% 24h

Dana Nessel

0%

0% 24h

Rashida Tlaib

0%

0% 24h

Show all outcomes

Sarah Anthony

0%

0%

Kristen McDonald Rivet

0%

0%

Andy Levin

0%

0%

Matt Sahr

0%

0%

Market rules, made readable

Official description

How this market is decided

See what is changing

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Michigan. If no 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Michigan Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Living timeline · 3 significant updates

Haley Stevens odds fall 6.3 points as Michigan race tightens around McMorrow exit

Odds chart

Candidate probability over time

Odds chart showing latest Abdul El-Sayed probability of 67%.

Story so far

Needs a refresh

Over the 24 hours ending July 6, 2026, the Michigan Democratic Senate primary appears to have tightened around Mallory McMorrow’s exit and a clearer progressive-versus-moderate frame. In that move, Abdul El-Sayed’s position strengthened while Haley Stevens’ implied win probability fell from 24.15% to 17.85%, suggesting the market may have rotated away from Stevens after the field changed.

No major update has changed the story in 8 days.

Latest update

Haley Stevens odds fall 6.3 points as Michigan race tightens around McMorrow exit

Haley Stevens’ implied win probability fell from 24.15% to 17.85% over the 24 hours ending July 6, 2026, alongside reporting on Mallory McMorrow’s exit and a sharper progressive-versus-moderate framing of the Michigan Democratic Senate primary.

Why this matters

Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.

Known catalysts

  • McMorrow’s exit from the race appears to have shifted the competitive field.
  • Coverage framed the contest more sharply around a progressive-versus-moderate split, which may have affected market positioning.
  • The latest Haley Stevens move was reported by Polymarket as a 6.3-point 24-hour price change.

Unresolved questions

  • Whether the odds moves reflect durable voter consolidation or a short-lived reaction to McMorrow’s exit.
  • Whether additional candidate moves or endorsements will change the race narrative again.
  • How much of the movement is driven by market sentiment versus underlying campaign fundamentals.

People and institutions to watch

Abdul El-SayedMallory McMorrowHaley StevensMichigan Senate contestPolymarket

Source trail

No public sources are attached yet.

Living timeline

Significant updates

  1. Haley Stevens’ Polymarket-implied odds moved down from 0.2415 to 0.1785, a 6.3-point drop, over the 24-hour window from 2026-07-05T19:52:02.910Z to 2026-07-06T19:52:02.910Z. The move came as coverage on July 6 focused on Mallory McMorrow leaving the race and on the contest narrowing into a more explicit progressive-versus-moderate split. That sequence may have coincided with a reassessment of Stevens’ path, but the sources only support correlation, not a confirmed causal driver. Reporting from the New York Times, Roll Call, Fox News, Newsweek, and The Guardian all centered on McMorrow’s exit and the reshaped field, which appears to be the main backdrop for the market move.

    What changed

    Stevens’ implied win probability declined 6.3 points in 24 hours, from 24.15% to 17.85%, while news flow centered on McMorrow’s withdrawal and the reframe of the primary.

    What to watch next

    Watch whether follow-on endorsements, candidate consolidation, or new coverage changes the race narrative again, especially if the field continues to sort into a progressive-versus-moderate contest.

    Sources