5kt meteor strike in 2026?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Current leader
- No 71%
- Leader 24h
- +2%
- 24h volume
- 133.4
- Liquidity
- 2.8K
Top outcomes
2 outcomes
No
71%
+2% 24h
Yes
30%
-1% 24h
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify. The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository:. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S.
Read the complete resolution rules
Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Living timeline · 1 significant update
Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet
Odds chart
Probability over time
Odds chart showing latest No probability of 75%.
Story so far
Needs a refreshNo story summary has been written yet.
No major update has changed the story in 20 days.
Latest update
Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet
Yes moved lower from 35.0% to 29.5% (-5.5 points) between 2026-06-23T18:45:46.297Z and 2026-06-24T18:45:46.297Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.
Why this matters
Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.
Known catalysts
- No catalyst has been confirmed yet.
Unresolved questions
- No open questions have been logged yet.
People and institutions to watch
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Source trail
No public sources are attached yet.
Living timeline
Significant updates
The "Yes" outcome in "5kt meteor strike in 2026?" made a sharp move from 35.0% to 29.5% between 2026-06-23T18:45:46.297Z and 2026-06-24T18:45:46.297Z. PolySays has not found a clear public news source, official statement, or other confirmed catalyst that explains the timing of this move. The move may reflect private interpretation, social discussion, liquidity conditions, or information that has not yet appeared in reliable public sources.
What changed
The market repriced by -5.5 points, but the public narrative has not caught up with a confirmed explanation.
What to watch next
Watch for official statements, later reporting, social posts that become verifiable public context, and whether volume or the new probability level holds in later snapshots.
Sources
No external sources are attached yet.