Who will be UFC Heavyweight champion at the end of 2026?
This market will resolve according to the official UFC Heavyweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
- Current leader
- Tom Aspinall 54%
- Largest 24h move
- Rizvan Kuniev -20%
- 24h volume
- 858.7
- Liquidity
- 2.9K
Top candidates
14 outcomes
Tom Aspinall
54%
+3% 24h
Ciryl Gane
45%
+4% 24h
Josh Hokit
42%
-2% 24h
Tyrell Fortune
28%
-14% 24h
Curtis Blaydes
27%
-0% 24h
Show all outcomes
Ante Delija
27%
-0%
Waldo Cortes Acosta
23%
-1%
Serghei Spivac
21%
-1%
Rizvan Kuniev
19%
-20%
Jailton Almeida
10%
+0%
Sergei Pavlovich
5%
+0%
Alexander Volkov
1%
-0%
Derrick Lewis
1%
0%
Marcin Tybura
1%
0%
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
This market will resolve according to the official UFC Heavyweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (.
Living timeline · 5 significant updates
Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet
Odds chart
Candidate probability over time
Odds chart showing latest Tom Aspinall probability of 47%.
Story so far
Needs a refreshNo event-level story summary has been written yet.
No major update has changed the story in 21 days.
Latest update
Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet
Rizvan Kuniev moved lower from 41.4% to 18.6% (-22.9 points) between 2026-06-23T00:00:04.000Z and 2026-06-24T18:45:46.335Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.
Why this matters
Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.
Known catalysts
- No catalyst has been confirmed yet.
Unresolved questions
- No open questions have been logged yet.
People and institutions to watch
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Source trail
No public sources are attached yet.
Living timeline
Significant updates
The "Rizvan Kuniev" outcome in "Who will be UFC Heavyweight champion at the end of 2026?" made a sharp move from 41.4% to 18.6% between 2026-06-23T00:00:04.000Z and 2026-06-24T18:45:46.335Z. PolySays has not found a clear public news source, official statement, or other confirmed catalyst that explains the timing of this move. The move may reflect private interpretation, social discussion, liquidity conditions, or information that has not yet appeared in reliable public sources.
What changed
The market repriced by -22.9 points, but the public narrative has not caught up with a confirmed explanation.
What to watch next
Watch for official statements, later reporting, social posts that become verifiable public context, and whether volume or the new probability level holds in later snapshots.
Sources
No external sources are attached yet.