Canada Annual Inflation 2026
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices over the 12-month period ending December 2026 in Canada, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by Statistics Canada.
- Current leader
- between 3.5% and 3.9% 44%
- Largest 24h move
- between 3.0% and 3.4% +6%
- 24h volume
- 0
- Liquidity
- 7.9K
Top candidates
8 outcomes
between 3.5% and 3.9%
44%
-2% 24h
between 1.5% and 1.9%
42%
-1% 24h
between 3.0% and 3.4%
42%
+6% 24h
less than 1.0%
42%
-0% 24h
between 2.5% and 2.9%
34%
-0% 24h
Show all outcomes
between 2.0% and 2.4%
20%
+3%
between 1.0% and 1.4%
6%
+0%
at least 4.0%
1%
-0%
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices over the 12-month period ending December 2026 in Canada, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by Statistics Canada. This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (, currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Read the complete resolution rules
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month.
The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release, which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 1.9%).
Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see:
Living timeline · 2 significant updates
Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet
Odds chart
Candidate probability over time
Odds chart showing latest between 3.5% and 3.9% probability of 2%.
Story so far
Needs a refreshNo event-level story summary has been written yet.
No major update has changed the story in 20 days.
Latest update
Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet
Canada's 2026 inflation be between 3.5% and 3.9% moved higher from 33.7% to 44.0% (+10.4 points) between 2026-06-23T00:00:08.000Z and 2026-06-24T18:45:46.300Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.
Why this matters
Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.
Known catalysts
- No catalyst has been confirmed yet.
Unresolved questions
- No open questions have been logged yet.
People and institutions to watch
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Source trail
No public sources are attached yet.
Living timeline
Significant updates
The "Canada's 2026 inflation be between 3.5% and 3.9%" outcome in "Canada Annual Inflation 2026" made a sharp move from 33.7% to 44.0% between 2026-06-23T00:00:08.000Z and 2026-06-24T18:45:46.300Z. PolySays has not found a clear public news source, official statement, or other confirmed catalyst that explains the timing of this move. The move may reflect private interpretation, social discussion, liquidity conditions, or information that has not yet appeared in reliable public sources.
What changed
The market repriced by +10.4 points, but the public narrative has not caught up with a confirmed explanation.
What to watch next
Watch for official statements, later reporting, social posts that become verifiable public context, and whether volume or the new probability level holds in later snapshots.
Sources
No external sources are attached yet.