activePoliticsRepublican House incumbents not -11% 24h

How many Republican House Incumbents will not win their Primary?

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.

View on Polymarket

Get alerts for How many Republican House Incumbents will not win their Primary?

We email only when PolySays publishes a meaningful update, not every price move.

Current leader
Republican House incumbents not 48%
Largest 24h move
Republican House incumbents not -11%
24h volume
1.5K
Liquidity
21.3K

Top candidates

6 outcomes

Republican House incumbents not

48%

+7% 24h

Republican House incumbents not

44%

-0% 24h

Republican House incumbents not

40%

0% 24h

Republican House incumbents not

15%

+1% 24h

Republican House incumbents not

0%

-2% 24h

Show all outcomes

Republican House incumbents not

0%

-11%

Market rules, made readable

Official description

How this market is decided

See what is changing

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September. This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.

An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.

Read the complete resolution rules

This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026.

If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.

Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market. The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections.

If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.

Living timeline · 1 significant update

4-6 GOP House incumbent-loss market rises after new primary-season coverage

Odds chart

Candidate probability over time

Odds chart showing latest Republican House incumbents not probability of 62%.

Story so far

Needs a refresh

No event-level story summary has been written yet.

No major update has changed the story in 20 days.

Latest update

4-6 GOP House incumbent-loss market rises after new primary-season coverage

The 4-6 Republican House incumbent primary-loss outcome rose from 44.35% to 48.00% over 24 hours, as recent coverage highlighted an already difficult 2026 primary season for incumbents.

Why this matters

Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.

Known catalysts

  • No catalyst has been confirmed yet.

Unresolved questions

  • No open questions have been logged yet.

People and institutions to watch

Nothing specific is being tracked yet.

Source trail

No public sources are attached yet.

Living timeline

Significant updates

  1. Polymarket reported a 3.65-point 24-hour move in the Yes price for the outcome that four to six Republican House incumbents will not win nominating elections in the 2026 cycle. The move ran from 2026-06-23T18:45:44.934Z to 2026-06-24T18:45:44.934Z, taking the market from 44.35% to 48.00%. Supplied source snippets point to contemporaneous coverage of incumbent vulnerability: Center for Politics said the 2026 primary season had already surpassed the average number of incumbent losses, The Hill listed Senate and House incumbents who had lost primaries, and The Downballot framed the season as potentially getting tougher for House incumbents. These sources provide relevant context, but they do not confirm a direct cause for the market move, so the relationship appears contextual rather than causal.

    What changed

    The Yes price for the 4-6 GOP House incumbent primary-loss outcome increased by 3.65 percentage points, from 44.35% to 48.00%, over the supplied 24-hour window.

    What to watch next

    Watch for additional Republican House primary results, retirements, ballot-access developments, and updated reporting on incumbent vulnerability that could reshape expectations across the event’s outcome ranges.

    Sources