activeEconomyupper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027 -1% 24h

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET.

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Current leader
upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027 32%
Largest 24h move
upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027 -1%
24h volume
2.7K
Liquidity
142.5K

Top candidates

20 outcomes

upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027

32%

-1% 24h

lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027

20%

-0% 24h

upper bound reach 4.5% or higher before 2027

9%

-0% 24h

upper bound reach 4.75% or higher before 2027

6%

+0% 24h

lower bound reach 1.25% or lower before 2027

6%

-1% 24h

Show all outcomes

lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027

6%

0%

lower bound reach 0.25% or lower before 2027

5%

-0%

lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027

5%

-0%

lower bound reach 2.0% or lower before 2027

5%

+0%

lower bound reach 0.75% or lower before 2027

5%

+0%

lower bound reach 0.5% or lower before 2027

5%

-0%

lower bound reach 1.75% or lower before 2027

5%

0%

lower bound reach 1.5% or lower before 2027

5%

0%

lower bound reach 2.25% or lower before 2027

5%

0%

lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027

4%

0%

lower bound reach 0% or lower before 2027

4%

0%

lower bound reach 1.0% or lower before 2027

4%

0%

upper bound reach 5.0% or higher before 2027

4%

0%

upper bound reach 5.5% or higher before 2027

4%

0%

upper bound reach 5.25% or higher before 2027

3%

0%

Market rules, made readable

Official description

How this market is decided

See what is changing

Resolves Yes

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET.

Resolves No

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.

Living timeline · 2 significant updates

Fed 4.5% upper-bound market rises after June 24 snapshots

Odds chart

Candidate probability over time

Odds chart showing latest upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027 probability of 22%.

Story so far

Needs a refresh

The market for the Fed’s upper bound reaching 4.5% or higher before 2027 moved higher on June 24, rising from 5.25% to 9.15% between 18:45:35Z and 19:22:18Z.

No major update has changed the story in 20 days.

Latest update

Fed 4.5% upper-bound market rises after June 24 snapshots

The market for the Fed’s upper bound reaching 4.5% or higher before 2027 rose from 5.25% to 9.15%, a 3.9-point move, between 18:45:35Z and 19:22:18Z on June 24.

Why this matters

Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.

Known catalysts

  • A June 24 snapshot sequence showed a 3.9-point rise in the market’s Yes price.
  • The draft entry links the movement to a Federal Reserve press release, but the exact causal connection is not established from the provided input.

Unresolved questions

  • What market event or interpretation drove the June 24 price move?
  • Did the Federal Reserve press release coincide with, or merely precede, the odds surge?
  • Was the move driven by new policy guidance, an economic data readout, or broader rate expectations?

People and institutions to watch

Federal ReserveFed upper bound reaching 4.5% or higher before 2027

Source trail

No public sources are attached yet.

Living timeline

Significant updates

  1. The supplied movement data shows a confirmed odds move in the Yes outcome for whether the Fed’s upper bound will reach 4.5% or higher before 2027. The probability increased from 0.0525 to 0.0915, a 0.0390 move, during the provided snapshot window on June 24, 2026. The only matched source is a Federal Reserve press release published later that day about annual bank stress test results, saying large banks were positioned to weather a severe recession and continue lending. That source is official Fed context, but it does not directly address the policy-rate path or explain the market move, so any connection appears only contextual rather than causal.

    What changed

    Yes odds moved from 5.25% to 9.15%, up 3.9 percentage points, during the supplied June 24 snapshot window.

    What to watch next

    Watch for Fed communications, inflation and labor data, and rate-path repricing that more directly address whether policy could return to a 4.5% upper bound before 2027.

    Sources