Who will win the 2026 Fields Medal?
The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide.
- Current leader
- Hong Wang 78%
- Largest 24h move
- Julian Sahasrabudhe +2%
- 24h volume
- 1.6K
- Liquidity
- 9.9K
Top candidates
11 outcomes
Hong Wang
78%
+1% 24h
Jacob Tsimerman
63%
+0% 24h
Jack Thorne
58%
+1% 24h
Yu Deng
51%
-1% 24h
Vesselin Dimitrov
50%
-0% 24h
Show all outcomes
John Pardon
46%
-0%
Aleksandr Logunov
30%
+0%
Julian Sahasrabudhe
22%
+2%
Sam Raskin
16%
+2%
Will Sawin
14%
-1%
Alexander Efimov
3%
+1%
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal. If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (, however other credible reporting may be used.
Living timeline · 3 significant updates
Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet
Odds chart
Candidate probability over time
Odds chart showing latest Hong Wang probability of 99%.
Story so far
Needs a refreshNo event-level story summary has been written yet.
No major update has changed the story in 20 days.
Latest update
Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet
Jack Thorne moved higher from 33.5% to 58.0% (+24.5 points) between 2026-06-23T18:45:47.499Z and 2026-06-24T18:45:47.499Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.
Why this matters
Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.
Known catalysts
- No catalyst has been confirmed yet.
Unresolved questions
- No open questions have been logged yet.
People and institutions to watch
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Source trail
No public sources are attached yet.
Living timeline
Significant updates
The "Jack Thorne" outcome in "Who will win the 2026 Fields Medal?" made a sharp move from 33.5% to 58.0% between 2026-06-23T18:45:47.499Z and 2026-06-24T18:45:47.499Z. PolySays has not found a clear public news source, official statement, or other confirmed catalyst that explains the timing of this move. The move may reflect private interpretation, social discussion, liquidity conditions, or information that has not yet appeared in reliable public sources.
What changed
The market repriced by +24.5 points, but the public narrative has not caught up with a confirmed explanation.
What to watch next
Watch for official statements, later reporting, social posts that become verifiable public context, and whether volume or the new probability level holds in later snapshots.
Sources
No external sources are attached yet.