activeEconomy3.5% at the end of 2026 +4% 24h

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range.

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Current leader
3.75% at the end of 2026 28%
Largest 24h move
3.5% at the end of 2026 +4%
24h volume
2.4K
Liquidity
184.1K

Top candidates

15 outcomes

3.75% at the end of 2026

28%

0% 24h

4.0% at the end of 2026

25%

-3% 24h

4.25% at the end of 2026

21%

-0% 24h

≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026

11%

+0% 24h

3.5% at the end of 2026

9%

+4% 24h

Show all outcomes

3.0% at the end of 2026

2%

0%

3.25% at the end of 2026

1%

0%

2.75% at the end of 2026

1%

+0%

2.5% at the end of 2026

1%

0%

≤1.0% at the end of 2026

1%

+0%

1.25% at the end of 2026

1%

+0%

1.5% at the end of 2026

0%

0%

1.75% at the end of 2026

0%

0%

2.25% at the end of 2026

0%

0%

2.0% at the end of 2026

0%

0%

Market rules, made readable

Official description

How this market is decided

See what is changing

The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.

This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.

Read the complete resolution rules

The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (.

Living timeline · 1 significant update

4.0% end-2026 Fed-rate odds rose 3.45 points over 24 hours

Odds chart

Candidate probability over time

Odds chart showing latest 3.75% at the end of 2026 probability of 30%.

Story so far

Needs a refresh

No event-level story summary has been written yet.

No major update has changed the story in 21 days.

Latest update

4.0% end-2026 Fed-rate odds rose 3.45 points over 24 hours

Polymarket reported the 4.0% end-2026 Fed-rate outcome rising from 21.75% to 25.2% between June 23 and June 24, while a Fed stress-test release offered only contextual macro news.

Why this matters

Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.

Known catalysts

  • No catalyst has been confirmed yet.

Unresolved questions

  • No open questions have been logged yet.

People and institutions to watch

Nothing specific is being tracked yet.

Source trail

No public sources are attached yet.

Living timeline

Significant updates

  1. The 4.0% upper-bound outcome for the end-2026 federal funds rate moved up 3.45 percentage points, from 21.75% to 25.2%, during the supplied 24-hour window. The only matched source is the Federal Reserve's June 24 announcement that annual bank stress tests showed large banks were positioned to withstand a severe recession and continue lending. That release is relevant macro and Fed-context news, but it does not directly address the 2026 policy-rate path. The timing may have overlapped with the market move, but the supplied context does not confirm it caused the odds change.

    What changed

    The Yes price for the 4.0% end-2026 Fed-rate outcome rose from 0.2175 to 0.252, a 0.0345 move, over the supplied 24-hour period.

    What to watch next

    Watch for Fed communications, inflation and labor-market data, and updated rate-path expectations that more directly bear on where the target range ends 2026.

    Sources