Living market coverage
Prediction-market movement explanations
The newest sourced PolySays updates about meaningful odds changes, possible catalysts, unresolved signals, and what to watch next.
- Surge
Will Runzhi Pang win the 2026 Buick LPGA Shanghai? — probability rises to 9.45%
The tracked probability rose to 9.45%, up 8.5 percentage points from 0.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: LPGA: Buick LPGA Shanghai Winner
- Surge
Will Liqi Zeng win the 2026 Buick LPGA Shanghai? — probability rises to 9.45%
The tracked probability rose to 9.45%, up 8.5 percentage points from 0.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: LPGA: Buick LPGA Shanghai Winner
- Surge
Will Shuying Li win the 2026 Buick LPGA Shanghai? — probability rises to 9.45%
The tracked probability rose to 9.45%, up 8.7 percentage points from 0.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: LPGA: Buick LPGA Shanghai Winner
- Surge
Will Yujie Liu win the 2026 Buick LPGA Shanghai? — probability rises to 9.45%
The tracked probability rose to 9.45%, up 9.4 percentage points from 0.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: LPGA: Buick LPGA Shanghai Winner
- Surge
Will Pauline Roussin-Bouchard win the 2026 Buick LPGA Shanghai? — probability rises to 9.45%
The tracked probability rose to 9.45%, up 9.4 percentage points from 0.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: LPGA: Buick LPGA Shanghai Winner
- Surge
Will Menghan Li win the 2026 Buick LPGA Shanghai? — probability rises to 9.45%
The tracked probability rose to 9.45%, up 9.4 percentage points from 0.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: LPGA: Buick LPGA Shanghai Winner
- Surge
Will MrBeast's next video get at least 60 million views on day 1? — probability rises to 62.4%
The tracked probability rose to 62.4%, up 15.2 percentage points from 47.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: # of views of next MrBeast video on day 1?
- Surge
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 17, 2026? — probability rises to 11.1%
The tracked probability rose to 11.1%, up 4.1 percentage points from 7.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will Russia target Kyiv on...?
- Surge
NATO downs another Russian drone by October 31? — probability rises to 78.5%
The tracked probability rose to 78.5%, up 5.0 percentage points from 73.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NATO downs another Russian drone by...?
- Surge
Will Deportivo Garcilaso be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1? — probability rises to 49.9%
The tracked probability rose to 49.9%, up 46.9 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Peru Liga 1: Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will Zhejiang be relegated from the 2026 Chinese Super League? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 7.3 percentage points from 10.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Chinese Super League: Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will Randal Kolo Muani score the most goals in the 2026-27 UEFA Europa League? — probability falls to 5.15%
The tracked probability fell to 5.15%, down 23.3 percentage points from 28.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: UEFA Europa League: Top Scorer 2026-27
- Surge
Will P.J. Washington lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 13.15%
The tracked probability rose to 13.15%, up 10.1 percentage points from 3.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Lynn Vision Gaming qualify to PGL Major Singapore 2026? — probability rises to 49.4%
The tracked probability rose to 49.4%, up 9.6 percentage points from 39.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Which teams will qualify to PGL Major Singapore 2026?
- Surge
Will Nic Claxton lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 29.7%
The tracked probability rose to 29.7%, up 27.1 percentage points from 2.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Michael Mayer finish as a top-5 TE in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability rises to 49.9%
The tracked probability rose to 49.9%, up 46.6 percentage points from 3.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 5 Scoring TEs
- Surge
Will Anthony Davis lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 14.05%
The tracked probability rose to 14.05%, up 10.6 percentage points from 3.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Jayson Tatum lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 2.55%
The tracked probability fell to 2.55%, down 9.3 percentage points from 11.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will the PQ win 55-59 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election? — probability rises to 74.75%
The tracked probability rose to 74.75%, up 3.0 percentage points from 71.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Quebec General Election: PQ # Seats?
- Plunge
Will Josh Hart lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 11.3 percentage points from 14.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Macklin Celebrini record 80+ points in the 2026-27 regular season? — probability rises to 87%
The tracked probability rose to 87%, up 5.5 percentage points from 81.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NHL: Players to Record 80+ Points
- Plunge
Will Trump's approval rating hit 39% by June 30, 2027? — probability falls to 56.5%
The tracked probability fell to 56.5%, down 3.0 percentage points from 59.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Trump's approval rating hit by June 30, 2027?
- Plunge
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 4, 2026? — probability falls to 52.9%
The tracked probability fell to 52.9%, down 3.0 percentage points from 55.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?
- Surge
Will DeVonta Smith finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 49.75%
The tracked probability rose to 49.75%, up 6.5 percentage points from 43.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will "Pepas" by Farruko be on the radio in GTA VI at launch? — probability falls to 35.5%
The tracked probability fell to 35.5%, down 3.0 percentage points from 38.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Songs on GTA VI Radio at Launch?
- Plunge
Israel military action against Lebanon on October 6? — probability falls to 20%
The tracked probability fell to 20%, down 9.0 percentage points from 29% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Israel military action against Lebanon on...?
- Surge
Will Tractor Supply (TSCO) beat quarterly earnings? — probability rises to 25.95%
The tracked probability rose to 25.95%, up 3.4 percentage points from 22.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will Tractor Supply (TSCO) beat quarterly earnings?
- Plunge
Will Alec Pierce finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 27.75%
The tracked probability fell to 27.75%, down 8.8 percentage points from 36.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will "Whalefall" score at least 70 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? — probability falls to 85.75%
The tracked probability fell to 85.75%, down 5.2 percentage points from 90.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: "Whalefall" Rotten Tomatoes Score?
- Plunge
Will Jalen Hurts have 2,999.5+ passing yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability falls to 15.5%
The tracked probability fell to 15.5%, down 6.5 percentage points from 22% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: Jalen Hurts 2026-27 Regular Season Passing Yards
- Surge
Will Brock Bowers finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 49.75%
The tracked probability rose to 49.75%, up 12.1 percentage points from 37.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Josh Jacobs finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 38.15%
The tracked probability fell to 38.15%, down 9.5 percentage points from 47.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will William Eklund record 100+ points? — probability rises to 25.6%
The tracked probability rose to 25.6%, up 23.1 percentage points from 2.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NHL: Players to Record 100+ Points
- Surge
Will Rome Odunze finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 49.75%
The tracked probability rose to 49.75%, up 3.7 percentage points from 46.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Josh Giddey lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 33.5%
The tracked probability fell to 33.5%, down 16.9 percentage points from 50.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Le Havre finish in the top 4 of the 2026-27 Ligue 1 season? — probability falls to 40.85%
The tracked probability fell to 40.85%, down 8.9 percentage points from 49.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Ligue 1 Top 4 Finishers (2026-27)
- Plunge
Will AT&T (T) Q3 total revenue be above $31.6B? — probability falls to 49.5%
The tracked probability fell to 49.5%, down 3.0 percentage points from 52.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will AT&T (T) Q3 total revenue be above __?
- Surge
Will Omarion Hampton finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 49.7%
The tracked probability rose to 49.7%, up 16.2 percentage points from 33.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Jalen Hurts have 2,749.5+ passing yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability falls to 17%
The tracked probability fell to 17%, down 3.5 percentage points from 20.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: Jalen Hurts 2026-27 Regular Season Passing Yards
- Plunge
Will Ilse Aigner be the next President of Germany? — probability falls to 56.5%
The tracked probability fell to 56.5%, down 8.0 percentage points from 64.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Next President of Germany?
- Plunge
Will Jalen Hurts have 16.5+ passing touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability falls to 18.5%
The tracked probability fell to 18.5%, down 14.5 percentage points from 33% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: Jalen Hurts 2026-27 Regular Season Passing Touchdowns
- Surge
Will Mauricio Dubón win a 2026 NL Gold Glove Award? — probability rises to 93.05%
The tracked probability rose to 93.05%, up 4.9 percentage points from 88.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 NL Gold Glove Winners
- Surge
Will "Pragmata" win Ultimate Game of the Year at the 2026 Golden Joystick Awards? — probability rises to 19.75%
The tracked probability rose to 19.75%, up 15.8 percentage points from 4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Golden Joystick Awards: Ultimate Game of the Year Winner
- Surge
Next [link omitted] GLM (5.4+) released by October 31, 2026? — probability rises to 56.5%
The tracked probability rose to 56.5%, up 8.0 percentage points from 48.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by...?
- Plunge
Will Ivica Zubac lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.5%
The tracked probability fell to 3.5%, down 24.9 percentage points from 28.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Colgate-Palmolive (CL) beat quarterly earnings? — probability falls to 50%
The tracked probability fell to 50%, down 5.5 percentage points from 55.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will Colgate-Palmolive (CL) beat quarterly earnings?
- Surge
Will Kyle Pitts Sr. finish as a top-12 TE in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability rises to 45.1%
The tracked probability rose to 45.1%, up 22.4 percentage points from 22.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 12 Scoring TEs
- Plunge
Will Alex Sarr lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 30.5 percentage points from 33.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Exact Margin: Tie — probability rises to 24.7%
The tracked probability rose to 24.7%, up 21.5 percentage points from 3.2% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Bills vs. Raiders
- Surge
Will Lauri Markkanen lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 26.45%
The tracked probability rose to 26.45%, up 23.9 percentage points from 2.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader