This market will resolve according to the number of views the next YouTube video posted by MrBeast gets in the first 24 hours after being posted.
Current leader
100%
100%
1 outcome
Will MrBeast's next video get at least 60 million views on day 1?
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
SurgeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability rose to 93.95%, up 4.6 percentage points from 89.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 89% → 94%
+4.6 ppStory so far
Recently updatedThe tracked probability rose to 93.95%, up 4.6 percentage points from 89.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
A sourced or deterministic market update is available.
Supported by the sources below
What the evidence doesn’t settle
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Public sources opened for this story
No public sources are attached yet.
Odds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 89.3% to 93.95% (+4.65 percentage points), from 2026-10-18T08:45:07.910Z to 2026-10-18T09:02:00.719Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 89.3% → 93.95%
Probability moved from 89.3% to 93.95% (+4.65 percentage points). Observations were 16 minutes 53 seconds apart: 2026-10-18 08:45:07 UTC to 2026-10-18 09:02:00 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 85.45% to 89.5% (+4.05 percentage points), from 2026-10-18T08:16:02.908Z to 2026-10-18T08:31:50.160Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 75.65% to 85.45% (+9.8 percentage points), from 2026-10-18T08:00:27.764Z to 2026-10-18T08:16:02.908Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 71.95% to 75.65% (+3.7 percentage points), from 2026-10-18T07:47:33.427Z to 2026-10-18T08:00:27.764Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 67.65% to 71.95% (+4.3 percentage points), from 2026-10-18T07:31:27.906Z to 2026-10-18T07:47:33.427Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 64.8% to 69.1% (+4.3 percentage points), from 2026-10-18T07:01:53.244Z to 2026-10-18T07:16:47.535Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 69.5% to 64.8% (-4.7 percentage points), from 2026-10-18T06:47:26.969Z to 2026-10-18T07:01:53.244Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 72.95% to 69.5% (-3.45 percentage points), from 2026-10-18T06:32:25.070Z to 2026-10-18T06:47:26.969Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
This market will resolve according to the number of views the next YouTube video posted by MrBeast gets in the first 24 hours after being posted. This market may not resolve until the 24 hours are complete, regardless of whether a strike is reached earlier. If MrBeast does not post a YouTube video by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the resolution source is not available at the end of the specified duration, this market will resolve according to most recent number of views available before the end of the specified duration.
The resolution source for this market is MrBeast's YouTube channel (, specifically the 'views' counter for the described video. Note: This market refers to MrBeast's next video to be posted. Shorts, previews, or other videos released other than the referenced video will not be considered.
Living timeline · 12 significant updates
Will MrBeast's next video get at least 60 million views on day 1? — probability rises to 93.95%
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