This market will resolve to "Yes" if the displayed Rotten Tomatoes "All Critics" Tomatometer score for Whalefall is at least equal to the specified number at 10:00 AM ET on October 19, 2026.
Current leader
100%
100%
1 outcome
Will "Whalefall" score at least 70 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
SurgeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability rose to 100%, up 11.4 percentage points from 88.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 89% → 100%
+11.4 ppStory so far
Recently updatedThe tracked probability rose to 100%, up 11.4 percentage points from 88.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
A sourced or deterministic market update is available.
Supported by the sources below
What the evidence doesn’t settle
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Public sources opened for this story
No public sources are attached yet.
Odds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 88.6% to 100% (+11.4 percentage points), from 2026-10-19T15:45:53.947Z to 2026-10-19T16:01:43.900Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 88.6% → 100%
Probability moved from 88.6% to 100% (+11.4 percentage points). Observations were 15 minutes 50 seconds apart: 2026-10-19 15:45:53 UTC to 2026-10-19 16:01:43 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 93.8% to 90.75% (-3.05 percentage points), from 2026-10-19T14:47:53.652Z to 2026-10-19T15:01:18.711Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 88% to 94.35% (+6.35 percentage points), from 2026-10-19T14:17:41.465Z to 2026-10-19T14:30:27.868Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 99.5% to 88% (-11.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-19T14:01:09.245Z to 2026-10-19T14:17:41.465Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 92.3% to 99.5% (+7.2 percentage points), from 2026-10-19T13:47:37.918Z to 2026-10-19T14:01:09.245Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 92.05% to 88.05% (-4 percentage points), from 2026-10-19T12:32:54.459Z to 2026-10-19T12:45:09.871Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 91.55% to 87.75% (-3.8 percentage points), from 2026-10-19T11:47:32.327Z to 2026-10-19T12:02:56.192Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 88.4% to 91.55% (+3.15 percentage points), from 2026-10-19T11:31:34.031Z to 2026-10-19T11:47:32.327Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the displayed Rotten Tomatoes "All Critics" Tomatometer score for Whalefall is at least equal to the specified number at 10:00 AM ET on October 19, 2026.
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If, for any reason, the resolution data is unavailable at this market's specified end time, the resolution source will be checked until the relevant data is available. This market will resolve to "No" if no data is available by October 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Living timeline · 12 significant updates
Will "Whalefall" score at least 70 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? — probability rises to 100%
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