closedGeopolitics

NATO downs another Russian drone by...?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a NATO military downs another Russian drone by any means (kinetic, jammer, etc.) between market creation and the specified date 11:59 PM Kyiv Time.

Current leader

100%

Largest 24h move+23.4 pp 24h

24h volume: $803.8
Liquidity: $0
Closed: Oct 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC

Top candidates

1 outcome

NATO downs another Russian drone by October 31?
+23.4 pp 24h100%

Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).

Latest update

SurgeMonitoring onlyOct 18

NATO downs another Russian drone by October 31? — probability rises to 96.45%

The tracked probability rose to 96.45%, up 13.5 percentage points from 83% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.

Yes: 83% → 96%

+13.5 pp

Sources and full timeline

Story so far

Known catalysts

Supported by the sources below

No catalyst has been confirmed yet.

Unresolved questions

What the evidence doesn’t settle

Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.

People and institutions to watch

Nothing specific is being tracked yet.

Source trail

Public sources opened for this story

No public sources are attached yet.

Odds chart

Candidate probability over time

Living timeline

Significant updates

Coverage updated Oct 18, 2026, 10:49 PM UTC
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 83% to 96.45% (+13.45 percentage points), from 2026-10-18T22:31:28.518Z to 2026-10-18T22:47:47.662Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 83% → 96.45%
What changed
Probability moved from 83% to 96.45% (+13.45 percentage points). Observations were 16 minutes 19 seconds apart: 2026-10-18 22:31:28 UTC to 2026-10-18 22:47:47 UTC.
What to watch next
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
Sources
No external sources are attached yet.
Coverage updated Oct 18, 2026, 9:03 PM UTC
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 75% to 83% (+8 percentage points), from 2026-10-18T20:45:05.129Z to 2026-10-18T21:02:11.064Z (UTC).
Coverage updated Oct 18, 2026, 5:47 PM UTC
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 66% to 73.5% (+7.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-18T17:32:43.331Z to 2026-10-18T17:46:01.377Z (UTC).
Coverage updated Oct 18, 2026, 5:18 PM UTC
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 65% to 68% (+3 percentage points), from 2026-10-18T17:02:34.096Z to 2026-10-18T17:16:43.110Z (UTC).
Coverage updated Oct 18, 2026, 4:16 PM UTC
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 83% to 66% (-17 percentage points), from 2026-10-18T16:01:46.960Z to 2026-10-18T16:15:48.319Z (UTC).
Coverage updated Oct 18, 2026, 10:31 AM UTC
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 70.5% to 77.5% (+7 percentage points), from 2026-10-18T10:15:54.192Z to 2026-10-18T10:30:54.974Z (UTC).
Coverage updated Oct 18, 2026, 10:16 AM UTC
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 77.5% to 70.5% (-7 percentage points), from 2026-10-18T10:00:21.904Z to 2026-10-18T10:15:54.192Z (UTC).
Coverage updated Oct 18, 2026, 7:04 AM UTC
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 80% to 74.5% (-5.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-18T06:47:26.969Z to 2026-10-18T07:01:53.244Z (UTC).

Market rules, made readable

Official description

How this market is decided

Read the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.

See what is changing

Resolves Yes

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a NATO military downs another Russian drone by any means (kinetic, jammer, etc.) between market creation and the specified date 11:59 PM Kyiv Time.

A “Russian drone” refers to any drone that, based on a consensus of credible reporting, was launched from territory under Russia’s de facto control or was operated or directed by Russian forces. Where attribution remains ambiguous, the drone’s model and characteristics will be considered supporting evidence. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying incident will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources.

Read the complete resolution rules

Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant incident, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the incident based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (CEST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the incident.

If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the incident, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time.

No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.