Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?
By PolySays EditorialUpdated Editorial method
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a kinetic strike is conducted on, or forceful seizure of control is taken of, a commercial ship within the defined area on the specified date, between 12:00 AM and 11:59 PM UTC.
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- Current leader
- 46.5% 47%
- Largest 24h move
- +1.5 pp
- 24h volume
- 30.7
- Liquidity
- 26.4
Top candidates
1 outcome
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 6, 2026?
47%
+1.5 pp 24h
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a kinetic strike is conducted on, or forceful seizure of control is taken of, a commercial ship within the defined area on the specified date, between 12:00 AM and 11:59 PM UTC.
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The defined area consists of the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Gulf of Oman. An incident occurring outside these three bodies of water will not qualify, including in the Arabian Sea, the Gulf of Aden, or the Red Sea. No attribution is required.
A qualifying incident will count regardless of the identity of the party responsible, regardless of whether any state or group claims responsibility, and regardless of whether responsibility is denied, disputed, or never established. Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Read the complete resolution rules
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Seize control refers to forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by operatives in person.
Damaged caused by mines will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. The occurrence, location, and timing of a qualifying incident will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources.
Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, location, or timing of a relevant incident, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, location, and timing of the incident based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (UTC) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the incident.
If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, location, or timing of the incident, the incident will be judged on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time.
No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
Living timeline · 1 significant update
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 6, 2026? — probability rises to 46.5%
Odds chart
Candidate probability over time
Story so far
Recently updatedThe tracked probability rose to 46.5%, up 4.0 percentage points from 42.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
A sourced or deterministic market update is available.
Latest update
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 6, 2026? — probability rises to 46.5%
The tracked probability rose to 46.5%, up 4.0 percentage points from 42.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Why this matters
Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.
Known catalysts
- No catalyst has been confirmed yet.
Unresolved questions
- Watch for official disclosures or data releases, sustained volume, and whether later observations confirm the move.
People and institutions to watch
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Source trail
No public sources are attached yet.
Living timeline
Significant updates
The probability change is measured directly from the market observations. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied. This note records market behavior only and does not infer a reason for the move.
What changed
Probability moved from 42.5% to 46.5% (+4 percentage points). Observations were 29 minutes 33 seconds apart: 2026-10-06 12:31:11 UTC to 2026-10-06 13:00:44 UTC.
What to watch next
Watch for official disclosures or data releases, sustained volume, and whether later observations confirm the move.
Sources
No external sources are attached yet.
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