In the upcoming NFL football game between Bills and Raiders, scheduled for October 18 at 4:25PM ET: This market will resolve to "Bills" if Bills win the game.
Current leader
0%
0%
1 outcome
Exact Margin: Tie
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
PlungeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability fell to 0.05%, down 50.0 percentage points from 50% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 50% → 0%
-50.0 ppStory so far
Recently updatedThe tracked probability fell to 0.05%, down 50.0 percentage points from 50% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
A sourced or deterministic market update is available.
Supported by the sources below
What the evidence doesn’t settle
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Public sources opened for this story
No public sources are attached yet.
Odds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 50% to 0.05% (-49.95 percentage points), from 2026-10-18T23:30:07.578Z to 2026-10-18T23:47:07.325Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 50% → 0.05%
Probability moved from 50% to 0.05% (-49.95 percentage points). Observations were 17 minutes apart: 2026-10-18 23:30:07 UTC to 2026-10-18 23:47:07 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 2.45% to 50% (+47.55 percentage points), from 2026-10-18T23:17:19.620Z to 2026-10-18T23:30:07.578Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 46% to 4.85% (-41.15 percentage points), from 2026-10-18T20:17:48.325Z to 2026-10-18T20:31:57.845Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 42.95% to 46% (+3.05 percentage points), from 2026-10-18T18:01:23.950Z to 2026-10-18T18:17:03.867Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 23.65% to 40.95% (+17.3 percentage points), from 2026-10-18T06:47:26.969Z to 2026-10-18T07:01:53.244Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 3.7% to 23.65% (+19.95 percentage points), from 2026-10-18T06:32:25.070Z to 2026-10-18T06:47:26.969Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 24.7% to 3.7% (-21 percentage points), from 2026-10-18T04:32:27.128Z to 2026-10-18T04:46:08.499Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 3.2% to 24.7% (+21.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-18T04:16:45.326Z to 2026-10-18T04:32:27.128Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
In the upcoming NFL football game between Bills and Raiders, scheduled for October 18 at 4:25PM ET: This market will resolve to "Bills" if Bills win the game. This market will resolve to "Raiders" if Raiders win the game. Overtime is included if played. If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed.
If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
Living timeline · 12 significant updates
Exact Margin: Tie — probability falls to 0.05%
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