Living market coverage
Prediction-market movement explanations
The newest sourced PolySays updates about meaningful odds changes, possible catalysts, unresolved signals, and what to watch next.
- Surge
Will J.B. Bickerstaff win the 2026-27 NBA Coach of the Year? — probability rises to 46.65%
The tracked probability rose to 46.65%, up 41.8 percentage points from 4.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Coach of the Year
- Plunge
Will Min-Ji Kang win the 2026 Buick LPGA Shanghai? — probability falls to 0%
The tracked probability fell to 0%, down 8.7 percentage points from 8.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: LPGA: Buick LPGA Shanghai Winner
- Plunge
Will Cusco FC be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1? — probability falls to 3.05%
The tracked probability fell to 3.05%, down 42.4 percentage points from 45.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Peru Liga 1: Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Spread: Chargers (-17.5) — probability rises to 16%
The tracked probability rose to 16%, up 8.5 percentage points from 7.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Chargers vs. Chiefs
- Plunge
Will Josh Jacobs finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 44.55%
The tracked probability fell to 44.55%, down 3.6 percentage points from 48.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will MrBeast's next video get at least 60 million views on day 1? — probability rises to 71.95%
The tracked probability rose to 71.95%, up 4.3 percentage points from 67.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: # of views of next MrBeast video on day 1?
- Surge
Will William Eklund record 100+ points? — probability rises to 49.8%
The tracked probability rose to 49.8%, up 46.8 percentage points from 3.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NHL: Players to Record 100+ Points
- Plunge
Will Mitchell Robinson lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.1%
The tracked probability fell to 3.1%, down 18.4 percentage points from 21.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Randal Kolo Muani score the most goals in the 2026-27 UEFA Europa League? — probability falls to 5.15%
The tracked probability fell to 5.15%, down 17.0 percentage points from 22.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: UEFA Europa League: Top Scorer 2026-27
- Plunge
Will Luka Doncic lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 2.6%
The tracked probability fell to 2.6%, down 14.5 percentage points from 17.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Alianza Lima be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1? — probability rises to 49.7%
The tracked probability rose to 49.7%, up 46.7 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Peru Liga 1: Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will Deportivo Garcilaso be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1? — probability rises to 49.2%
The tracked probability rose to 49.2%, up 46.2 percentage points from 3.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Peru Liga 1: Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will Torreense reach the 2027 UEFA Europa League quarterfinal? — probability rises to 29.7%
The tracked probability rose to 29.7%, up 8.0 percentage points from 21.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: UEFA Europa League: Team to advance to 2027 quarters
- Plunge
Will San Lorenzo be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 47.2 percentage points from 50.2% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will Michael Mayer finish as a top-5 TE in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability falls to 3.3%
The tracked probability fell to 3.3%, down 47.0 percentage points from 50.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 5 Scoring TEs
- Surge
Will Matthew Golden have 1,049.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability rises to 33.5%
The tracked probability rose to 33.5%, up 7.0 percentage points from 26.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: Matthew Golden 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Yards
- Plunge
Will TOP ESPORTS make a roster change by December? — probability falls to 39.95%
The tracked probability fell to 39.95%, down 7.5 percentage points from 47.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Which Teams Will Make a Roster Change Before December?
- Plunge
Will AbbVie Q3 Global Skyrizi net revenues be above $5.5B? — probability falls to 67.5%
The tracked probability fell to 67.5%, down 7.0 percentage points from 74.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will AbbVie Q3 Global Skyrizi net revenues be above __?
- Plunge
FC Lorient vs. AS Monaco FC: AS Monaco FC O/U 4.5 — probability falls to 0.9%
The tracked probability fell to 0.9%, down 47.3 percentage points from 48.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: FC Lorient vs. AS Monaco FC - More Markets
- Plunge
Will Alec Pierce finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 42.7%
The tracked probability fell to 42.7%, down 6.8 percentage points from 49.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
FC Lorient vs. AS Monaco FC: FC Lorient O/U 3.5 — probability falls to 1.1%
The tracked probability fell to 1.1%, down 38.3 percentage points from 39.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: FC Lorient vs. AS Monaco FC - More Markets
- Plunge
Will Fernando Mendoza be named the Raiders' starting QB by Week 11? — probability falls to 13%
The tracked probability fell to 13%, down 12.0 percentage points from 25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: Fernando Mendoza named Raiders starting QB by...?
- Surge
Will "Whalefall" score at least 70 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? — probability rises to 85.8%
The tracked probability rose to 85.8%, up 19.1 percentage points from 66.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: "Whalefall" Rotten Tomatoes Score?
- Plunge
Will Christian McCaffrey finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 31.65%
The tracked probability fell to 31.65%, down 17.4 percentage points from 49.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Lauri Markkanen lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 17.9 percentage points from 20.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Paris FC vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901: Paris FC O/U 4.5 — probability falls to 2.55%
The tracked probability fell to 2.55%, down 30.8 percentage points from 33.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Paris FC vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901 - More Markets
- Surge
Will Le Havre finish in the top 4 of the 2026-27 Ligue 1 season? — probability rises to 47%
The tracked probability rose to 47%, up 6.0 percentage points from 41% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Ligue 1 Top 4 Finishers (2026-27)
- Plunge
Will Jayson Tatum lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 12.8 percentage points from 15.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Alex Sarr lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.05%
The tracked probability fell to 3.05%, down 15.3 percentage points from 18.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Lynn Vision Gaming qualify to PGL Major Singapore 2026? — probability falls to 33.9%
The tracked probability fell to 33.9%, down 15.6 percentage points from 49.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Which teams will qualify to PGL Major Singapore 2026?
- Surge
Will Iran target an Arab country by October 22, 2026? — probability rises to 57.5%
The tracked probability rose to 57.5%, up 18.0 percentage points from 39.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will Iran target an Arab country by...?
- Plunge
CA Osasuna vs. Real Racing Club: Real Racing Club O/U 3.5 — probability falls to 2.9%
The tracked probability fell to 2.9%, down 7.0 percentage points from 9.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: CA Osasuna vs. Real Racing Club - More Markets
- Plunge
Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: Crystal Palace FC O/U 3.5 — probability falls to 1.5%
The tracked probability fell to 1.5%, down 23.4 percentage points from 24.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Crystal Palace FC - More Markets
- Surge
Will Ezequiel Duran win a 2026 AL Gold Glove Award? — probability rises to 72.15%
The tracked probability rose to 72.15%, up 4.8 percentage points from 67.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 AL Gold Glove Winners
- Surge
Will Tigre be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability rises to 45.6%
The tracked probability rose to 45.6%, up 42.5 percentage points from 3.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will Kyle Pitts Sr. finish as a top-12 TE in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability falls to 3.1%
The tracked probability fell to 3.1%, down 46.9 percentage points from 50% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 12 Scoring TEs
- Surge
Will A.J. Brown have 10+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability rises to 27%
The tracked probability rose to 27%, up 14.7 percentage points from 12.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 10+ Receiving Touchdowns
- Plunge
Will Ivica Zubac lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.5%
The tracked probability fell to 3.5%, down 12.2 percentage points from 15.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will DK Metcalf finish as a top-5 WR in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability rises to 25.1%
The tracked probability rose to 25.1%, up 22.1 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 5 Scoring WRs
- Plunge
Will Jaylen Brown lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 12.8 percentage points from 15.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Spread: Chargers (-16.5) — probability rises to 16.5%
The tracked probability rose to 16.5%, up 9.0 percentage points from 7.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Chargers vs. Chiefs
- Surge
Will Cusco FC be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1? — probability rises to 45.5%
The tracked probability rose to 45.5%, up 42.4 percentage points from 3.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Peru Liga 1: Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will Wendell Carter Jr. lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.1%
The tracked probability fell to 3.1%, down 13.8 percentage points from 16.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Lanús be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability rises to 50.1%
The tracked probability rose to 50.1%, up 47.0 percentage points from 3.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will Torreense reach the 2027 UEFA Europa League quarterfinal? — probability falls to 21.7%
The tracked probability fell to 21.7%, down 7.8 percentage points from 29.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: UEFA Europa League: Team to advance to 2027 quarters
- Surge
Will San Lorenzo be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability rises to 50.2%
The tracked probability rose to 50.2%, up 24.6 percentage points from 25.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will Felix Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026? — probability rises to 27.6%
The tracked probability rose to 27.6%, up 4.1 percentage points from 23.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will Felix Protocol launch a token by ___ ?
- Surge
Will TOP ESPORTS make a roster change by December? — probability rises to 47.5%
The tracked probability rose to 47.5%, up 7.6 percentage points from 39.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Which Teams Will Make a Roster Change Before December?
- Surge
Will Alec Pierce finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 49.45%
The tracked probability rose to 49.45%, up 5.7 percentage points from 43.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Club Brugge reach the 2027 UEFA Champions League final? — probability falls to 1%
The tracked probability fell to 1%, down 5.0 percentage points from 6.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: UEFA Champions League: Team to advance to 2027 final