Living market coverage
Prediction-market movement explanations
The newest sourced PolySays updates about meaningful odds changes, possible catalysts, unresolved signals, and what to watch next.
- Plunge
Papertrade FDV above $100M one day after launch? — probability falls to 45%
The tracked probability fell to 45%, down 3.5 percentage points from 48.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Papertrade FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- Plunge
Will Jaylen Brown lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 46.2 percentage points from 49.2% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will A.J. Brown finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 15.6%
The tracked probability fell to 15.6%, down 7.4 percentage points from 23% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on October 19? — probability rises to 99.45%
The tracked probability rose to 99.45%, up 47.0 percentage points from 52.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lowest temperature in Miami on October 19?
- Plunge
Will Josh Jacobs finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 4.45%
The tracked probability fell to 4.45%, down 7.8 percentage points from 12.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Zach Edey lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 11%
The tracked probability fell to 11%, down 17.6 percentage points from 28.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $182 in October? — probability rises to 19%
The tracked probability rose to 19%, up 7.5 percentage points from 11.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in October 2026?
- Plunge
Will Rome Odunze finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 4.25%
The tracked probability fell to 4.25%, down 5.4 percentage points from 9.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $184 in October? — probability falls to 17.5%
The tracked probability fell to 17.5%, down 10.5 percentage points from 28% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in October 2026?
- Surge
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $180 in October? — probability rises to 56%
The tracked probability rose to 56%, up 3.5 percentage points from 52.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit in October 2026?
- Surge
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $152 in October? — probability rises to 33%
The tracked probability rose to 33%, up 10.4 percentage points from 22.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit in October 2026?
- Plunge
Will Emeka Egbuka finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 27.45%
The tracked probability fell to 27.45%, down 6.7 percentage points from 34.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Alec Pierce finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 17.15%
The tracked probability fell to 17.15%, down 6.8 percentage points from 23.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Omarion Hampton finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 21.45%
The tracked probability fell to 21.45%, down 6.9 percentage points from 28.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Carvana (CVNA) beat quarterly earnings? — probability falls to 3.5%
The tracked probability fell to 3.5%, down 5.0 percentage points from 8.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will Carvana (CVNA) beat quarterly earnings?
- Plunge
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $180 in October? — probability falls to 9%
The tracked probability fell to 9%, down 5.0 percentage points from 14% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in October 2026?
- Plunge
Will Brock Bowers finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 33%
The tracked probability fell to 33%, down 6.9 percentage points from 39.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Miley Cyrus perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show? — probability falls to 41.5%
The tracked probability fell to 41.5%, down 20.4 percentage points from 61.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Who will perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show?
- Surge
Will SK hynix (SKHY) hit (LOW) $132 Week of October 19 2026? — probability rises to 47%
The tracked probability rose to 47%, up 4.0 percentage points from 43% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will SK hynix (SKHY) hit Week of October 19 2026?
- Plunge
Will DeVonta Smith finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 17.6%
The tracked probability fell to 17.6%, down 6.8 percentage points from 24.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Michael McGreevy win a 2026 NL Gold Glove Award? — probability rises to 47.5%
The tracked probability rose to 47.5%, up 9.0 percentage points from 38.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 NL Gold Glove Winners
- Plunge
Will Quinshon Judkins finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 17.35%
The tracked probability fell to 17.35%, down 6.9 percentage points from 24.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Rashee Rice finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 40.15%
The tracked probability fell to 40.15%, down 6.7 percentage points from 46.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will there be a safety car during the 2026 F1 Singapore Grand Prix? — probability rises to 12.5%
The tracked probability rose to 12.5%, up 8.3 percentage points from 4.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will there be a safety car during the 2026 F1 Singapore Grand Prix?
- Surge
Will the PQ win 55-59 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election? — probability rises to 84.15%
The tracked probability rose to 84.15%, up 4.0 percentage points from 80.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Quebec General Election: PQ # Seats?
- Plunge
Will DJ Moore finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 26.9%
The tracked probability fell to 26.9%, down 6.8 percentage points from 33.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Neemias Queta lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 46.8 percentage points from 49.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will "Pragmata" win Ultimate Game of the Year at the 2026 Golden Joystick Awards? — probability falls to 3.05%
The tracked probability fell to 3.05%, down 5.8 percentage points from 8.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Golden Joystick Awards: Ultimate Game of the Year Winner
- Plunge
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 20, 2026? — probability falls to 82%
The tracked probability fell to 82%, down 5.5 percentage points from 87.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will Russia target Kyiv on...?
- Surge
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 4, 2026? — probability rises to 56.5%
The tracked probability rose to 56.5%, up 3.2 percentage points from 53.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?
- Plunge
Will Noe Khlif qualify for the 2027 PPA Tour Finals? — probability falls to 17%
The tracked probability fell to 17%, down 7.5 percentage points from 24.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: 2027 PPA Tour Finals: Player to Qualify (Men's)
- Surge
Will "All of a Sudden" be nominated for Best International Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards? — probability rises to 92%
The tracked probability rose to 92%, up 8.0 percentage points from 84% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Oscars 2027: Best International Feature Film Nominations
- Plunge
Will "Pepas" by Farruko be on the radio in GTA VI at launch? — probability falls to 42%
The tracked probability fell to 42%, down 10.0 percentage points from 52% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Songs on GTA VI Radio at Launch?
- Surge
Will IFK Norrköping be promoted to Allsvenskan (Sweden)? — probability rises to 59%
The tracked probability rose to 59%, up 3.8 percentage points from 55.2% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Superettan (Sweden): Team promoted to Allsvenskan (Sweden) (2026)
- Surge
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $188 in October? — probability rises to 20.5%
The tracked probability rose to 20.5%, up 11.0 percentage points from 9.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in October 2026?
- Plunge
Will Zhejiang be relegated from the 2026 Chinese Super League? — probability falls to 2.75%
The tracked probability fell to 2.75%, down 46.8 percentage points from 49.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Chinese Super League: Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will Corbin Carroll win a 2026 NL Gold Glove Award? — probability falls to 59.5%
The tracked probability fell to 59.5%, down 9.5 percentage points from 69% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 NL Gold Glove Winners
- Surge
Jayden Daniels: Passing Yards O/U 224.5 — probability rises to 100%
The tracked probability rose to 100%, up 8.0 percentage points from 92% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Commanders vs. 49ers - Player Props
- Surge
Christian McCaffrey: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 — probability rises to 100%
The tracked probability rose to 100%, up 8.5 percentage points from 91.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Commanders vs. 49ers - Player Props
- Plunge
Will [link omitted], Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $268 Week of October 19 2026? — probability falls to 62%
The tracked probability fell to 62%, down 8.5 percentage points from 70.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit Week of October 19 2026?
- Plunge
Will Le Havre finish in the top 4 of the 2026-27 Ligue 1 season? — probability falls to 29.5%
The tracked probability fell to 29.5%, down 11.6 percentage points from 41.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Ligue 1 Top 4 Finishers (2026-27)
- Surge
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on October 19? — probability rises to 99.45%
The tracked probability rose to 99.45%, up 3.5 percentage points from 96% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lowest temperature in NYC on October 19?
- Plunge
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from October 13 to October 20, 2026? — probability falls to 69.5%
The tracked probability fell to 69.5%, down 3.5 percentage points from 73% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 13 - October 20, 2026?
- Surge
Kaelon Black: Rushing Yards O/U 24.5 — probability rises to 100%
The tracked probability rose to 100%, up 8.0 percentage points from 92% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Commanders vs. 49ers - Player Props
- Surge
Mike Evans: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 — probability rises to 100%
The tracked probability rose to 100%, up 8.5 percentage points from 91.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Commanders vs. 49ers - Player Props
- Surge
Will [link omitted], Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $264 Week of October 19 2026? — probability rises to 85%
The tracked probability rose to 85%, up 5.5 percentage points from 79.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit Week of October 19 2026?
- Plunge
Will the lowest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on October 19? — probability falls to 91.5%
The tracked probability fell to 91.5%, down 4.6 percentage points from 96.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lowest temperature in Los Angeles on October 19?
- Surge
Terry McLaurin: Longest Reception O/U 19.5 — probability rises to 100%
The tracked probability rose to 100%, up 4.0 percentage points from 96% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Commanders vs. 49ers - Player Props
- Surge
Will San Lorenzo be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability rises to 49.8%
The tracked probability rose to 49.8%, up 46.9 percentage points from 2.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $182 in October? — probability rises to 11.5%
The tracked probability rose to 11.5%, up 3.0 percentage points from 8.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in October 2026?