This market will resolve according to the number of times Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump), posts on Truth Social between October 13, 12:00 PM ET and October 20, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Current leader
100%
100%
1 outcome
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from October 13 to October 20, 2026?
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
PlungeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability fell to 0.05%, down 54.5 percentage points from 54.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 55% → 0%
-54.5 ppStory so far
Recently updatedThe tracked probability fell to 0.05%, down 54.5 percentage points from 54.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
A sourced or deterministic market update is available.
Supported by the sources below
What the evidence doesn’t settle
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Public sources opened for this story
No public sources are attached yet.
Odds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 54.5% to 0.05% (-54.45 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T04:30:42.004Z to 2026-10-20T04:45:09.352Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 54.5% → 0.05%
Probability moved from 54.5% to 0.05% (-54.45 percentage points). Observations were 14 minutes 27 seconds apart: 2026-10-20 04:30:42 UTC to 2026-10-20 04:45:09 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 60.5% to 54.5% (-6 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T04:17:31.992Z to 2026-10-20T04:30:42.004Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 69.5% to 60.5% (-9 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T04:01:38.825Z to 2026-10-20T04:17:31.992Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 73% to 69.5% (-3.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T03:32:32.413Z to 2026-10-20T04:01:38.825Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 77.5% to 73% (-4.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T03:00:44.884Z to 2026-10-20T03:32:32.413Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump), posts on Truth Social between October 13, 12:00 PM ET and October 20, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, Truth Social itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Living timeline · 5 significant updates
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from October 13 to October 20, 2026? — probability falls to 0.05%
Keep exploring
Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 13 - October 20, 2026?
PlungeDonald Trump # Truth Social posts October 13 - October 20, 2026?
PlungeDonald Trump # Truth Social posts October 13 - October 20, 2026?
PlungeDonald Trump # Truth Social posts October 13 - October 20, 2026?
PlungeDonald Trump # Truth Social posts October 13 - October 20, 2026?
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