What will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit in October 2026?
Current leader
49.3%
49%
1 outcome
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $152 in October?
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
SurgeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability rose to 49.95%, up 5.7 percentage points from 44.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 44% → 50%
+5.7 ppStory so far
Recently updatedThe tracked probability rose to 49.95%, up 5.7 percentage points from 44.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
A sourced or deterministic market update is available.
Supported by the sources below
What the evidence doesn’t settle
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Public sources opened for this story
No public sources are attached yet.
Odds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 44.25% to 49.95% (+5.7 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T06:32:28.344Z to 2026-10-21T06:50:25.251Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 44.25% → 49.95%
Probability moved from 44.25% to 49.95% (+5.7 percentage points). Observations were 17 minutes 57 seconds apart: 2026-10-21 06:32:28 UTC to 2026-10-21 06:50:25 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 6.3% to 44.25% (+37.95 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T20:51:55.691Z to 2026-10-20T21:19:32.293Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 44.25% to 5.15% (-39.1 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T14:00:04.954Z to 2026-10-20T14:17:37.347Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 4% to 44.25% (+40.25 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T13:15:37.074Z to 2026-10-20T13:32:57.562Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 45.7% to 4% (-41.7 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T13:00:19.880Z to 2026-10-20T13:15:37.074Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 45.55% to 49.2% (+3.65 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T07:01:11.780Z to 2026-10-20T07:17:05.181Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 39.3% to 46.3% (+7 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T06:00:09.968Z to 2026-10-20T06:16:27.753Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 33% to 39.3% (+6.3 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T04:01:38.825Z to 2026-10-20T04:17:31.992Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
What will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit in October 2026?
Living timeline · 12 significant updates
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $152 in October? — probability rises to 49.95%
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