This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual performs live and in person during the Super Bowl LXI halftime show currently scheduled for February 14, 2027.
Current leader
11.1%
11%
1 outcome
Will Miley Cyrus perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show?
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
PlungeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability fell to 16.1%, down 4.2 percentage points from 20.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 20% → 16%
-4.2 ppStory so far
Recently updatedThe tracked probability fell to 16.1%, down 4.2 percentage points from 20.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
A sourced or deterministic market update is available.
Supported by the sources below
What the evidence doesn’t settle
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Public sources opened for this story
No public sources are attached yet.
Odds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 20.3% to 16.1% (-4.2 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T13:15:37.074Z to 2026-10-20T13:32:57.562Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 20.3% → 16.1%
Probability moved from 20.3% to 16.1% (-4.2 percentage points). Observations were 17 minutes 20 seconds apart: 2026-10-20 13:15:37 UTC to 2026-10-20 13:32:57 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 21.45% to 18% (-3.45 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T09:46:45.843Z to 2026-10-20T10:00:36.194Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 18% to 23.05% (+5.05 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T09:17:30.377Z to 2026-10-20T09:32:17.451Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 31.5% to 18.3% (-13.2 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T08:01:12.859Z to 2026-10-20T08:19:56.494Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 27.25% to 31.5% (+4.25 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T07:45:09.424Z to 2026-10-20T08:01:12.859Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 22.95% to 27.25% (+4.3 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T07:17:05.181Z to 2026-10-20T07:31:48.077Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 41.9% to 22.95% (-18.95 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T07:01:11.780Z to 2026-10-20T07:17:05.181Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 61.9% to 41.5% (-20.4 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T03:47:17.584Z to 2026-10-20T04:01:38.825Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual performs live and in person during the Super Bowl LXI halftime show currently scheduled for February 14, 2027.
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Qualifying performances include but are not limited to singing and dancing.
An appearance during the event where an individual does not perform as an incorporated part of the show will not alone qualify for a "Yes" resolution. "Dancing" is defined as deliberate, rhythmic body movement typically matched to music or a beat, such as swaying, stepping, or coordinated hand or body motions. Casual gesturing, clapping, or incidental body movement will not qualify.
Dancing without the presence of music or a beat will qualify. If this event is cancelled or otherwise delayed beyond March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be footage of the Super Bowl LXI halftime show, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Living timeline · 12 significant updates
Will Miley Cyrus perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show? — probability falls to 16.1%
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