Living market coverage
Prediction-market movement explanations
The newest sourced PolySays updates about meaningful odds changes, possible catalysts, unresolved signals, and what to watch next.
- Plunge
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on September 30, 2026? — probability falls to 17.8%
The tracked probability fell to 17.8%, down 11.2 percentage points from 29% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?
- Surge
Will J.B. Bickerstaff win the 2026-27 NBA Coach of the Year? — probability rises to 22.9%
The tracked probability rose to 22.9%, up 17.9 percentage points from 4.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Coach of the Year
- Surge
Will Neemias Queta lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 28.45%
The tracked probability rose to 28.45%, up 25.4 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Trump's approval rating hit 39% by June 30, 2027? — probability rises to 53.5%
The tracked probability rose to 53.5%, up 11.0 percentage points from 42.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Trump's approval rating hit by June 30, 2027?
- Surge
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 18, 2026? — probability rises to 67.5%
The tracked probability rose to 67.5%, up 5.5 percentage points from 62% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will Russia target Kyiv on...?
- Surge
Will Josh Giddey lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 28.85%
The tracked probability rose to 28.85%, up 24.8 percentage points from 4.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will AT&T (T) Q3 total revenue be above $31.6B? — probability rises to 70%
The tracked probability rose to 70%, up 43.0 percentage points from 27% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will AT&T (T) Q3 total revenue be above __?
- Surge
Will P.J. Washington lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 33.35%
The tracked probability rose to 33.35%, up 30.2 percentage points from 3.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Bam Adebayo lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 33.9%
The tracked probability rose to 33.9%, up 30.8 percentage points from 3.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Shanghai, China? — probability falls to 45.05%
The tracked probability fell to 45.05%, down 40.6 percentage points from 85.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: ATP Tennis: Shanghai, China Winner
- Plunge
Will TOP ESPORTS make a roster change by December? — probability falls to 57.95%
The tracked probability fell to 57.95%, down 28.8 percentage points from 86.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Which Teams Will Make a Roster Change Before December?
- Surge
Will Ivica Zubac lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 44.85%
The tracked probability rose to 44.85%, up 41.3 percentage points from 3.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will "How to Write a Song About You" from Power Ballad be nominated for Best Original Song at the 99th Academy… — probability rises to 69.5%
The tracked probability rose to 69.5%, up 9.5 percentage points from 60% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Oscars 2027: Best Original Song Nominations
- Plunge
Will Kyle Pitts Sr. finish as a top-12 TE in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability falls to 3.05%
The tracked probability fell to 3.05%, down 46.9 percentage points from 49.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 12 Scoring TEs
- Surge
Will Colgate-Palmolive (CL) beat quarterly earnings? — probability rises to 57.5%
The tracked probability rose to 57.5%, up 10.5 percentage points from 47% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will Colgate-Palmolive (CL) beat quarterly earnings?
- Plunge
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on October 18? — probability falls to 84.5%
The tracked probability fell to 84.5%, down 4.5 percentage points from 89% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Highest temperature in Jeddah on October 18?
- Surge
Will Randal Kolo Muani score the most goals in the 2026-27 UEFA Europa League? — probability rises to 21.8%
The tracked probability rose to 21.8%, up 16.7 percentage points from 5.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: UEFA Europa League: Top Scorer 2026-27
- Surge
Will Tigre be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability rises to 45.2%
The tracked probability rose to 45.2%, up 42.2 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will DK Metcalf finish as a top-5 WR in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability rises to 45.7%
The tracked probability rose to 45.7%, up 42.4 percentage points from 3.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 5 Scoring WRs
- Plunge
Will Luka Doncic lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 45.6 percentage points from 48.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will "Pragmata" win Ultimate Game of the Year at the 2026 Golden Joystick Awards? — probability rises to 11.1%
The tracked probability rose to 11.1%, up 7.6 percentage points from 3.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Golden Joystick Awards: Ultimate Game of the Year Winner
- Plunge
Will Zach Edey lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 46.8 percentage points from 49.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Hannes Steinbach lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 33.35%
The tracked probability rose to 33.35%, up 30.3 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Moussa Diabate lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 25.5 percentage points from 28.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Anthony Davis lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.45%
The tracked probability fell to 3.45%, down 30.3 percentage points from 33.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Emeka Egbuka finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 45.35%
The tracked probability fell to 45.35%, down 3.3 percentage points from 48.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will J.B. Bickerstaff win the 2026-27 NBA Coach of the Year? — probability falls to 4.95%
The tracked probability fell to 4.95%, down 18.0 percentage points from 22.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Coach of the Year
- Plunge
Will Matthew Golden have 1,049.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability falls to 25.5%
The tracked probability fell to 25.5%, down 7.5 percentage points from 33% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: Matthew Golden 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Yards
- Plunge
Will the PLQ win 40-43 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election? — probability falls to 68.6%
The tracked probability fell to 68.6%, down 8.3 percentage points from 76.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Quebec General Election: PLQ # Seats?
- Surge
Will Club Brugge reach the 2027 UEFA Champions League final? — probability rises to 6.1%
The tracked probability rose to 6.1%, up 5.1 percentage points from 1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: UEFA Champions League: Team to advance to 2027 final
- Surge
Will S&P Global (SPGI) Q3 Rating revenues be above $1.35B? — probability rises to 27.5%
The tracked probability rose to 27.5%, up 4.0 percentage points from 23.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will S&P Global (SPGI) Q3 Rating revenues be above __?
- Surge
Will Brock Bowers finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 49.3%
The tracked probability rose to 49.3%, up 4.3 percentage points from 45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 4, 2026? — probability rises to 55.2%
The tracked probability rose to 55.2%, up 5.3 percentage points from 49.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?
- Surge
Will OXY play for Cloud9 in 2027? — probability rises to 50.5%
The tracked probability rose to 50.5%, up 9.0 percentage points from 41.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: VALORANT Offseason: OXY Next Team
- Plunge
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 5.05% in October? — probability falls to 62.5%
The tracked probability fell to 62.5%, down 11.5 percentage points from 74% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in October?
- Plunge
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Hakeem Jeffries by October 31, 2026? — probability falls to 51%
The tracked probability fell to 51%, down 8.5 percentage points from 59.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Who will Trump publicly insult by October 31?
- Plunge
Will Ilse Aigner be the next President of Germany? — probability falls to 62%
The tracked probability fell to 62%, down 3.5 percentage points from 65.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Next President of Germany?
- Plunge
Will Noe Khlif qualify for the 2027 PPA Tour Finals? — probability falls to 18.5%
The tracked probability fell to 18.5%, down 6.0 percentage points from 24.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: 2027 PPA Tour Finals: Player to Qualify (Men's)
- Plunge
Will Chet Holmgren lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 7.5%
The tracked probability fell to 7.5%, down 5.1 percentage points from 12.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Fernando Mendoza be named the Raiders' starting QB by Week 11? — probability rises to 27%
The tracked probability rose to 27%, up 11.0 percentage points from 16% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: Fernando Mendoza named Raiders starting QB by...?
- Surge
Will Jalen Hurts have 16.5+ passing touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability rises to 22%
The tracked probability rose to 22%, up 5.5 percentage points from 16.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: Jalen Hurts 2026-27 Regular Season Passing Touchdowns
- Surge
Will Tractor Supply (TSCO) beat quarterly earnings? — probability rises to 26.55%
The tracked probability rose to 26.55%, up 4.0 percentage points from 22.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will Tractor Supply (TSCO) beat quarterly earnings?
- Plunge
Will Juwan Johnson have 774.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability falls to 41.5%
The tracked probability fell to 41.5%, down 19.0 percentage points from 60.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: Juwan Johnson 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Yards
- Surge
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on September 28, 2026? — probability rises to 79.5%
The tracked probability rose to 79.5%, up 9.5 percentage points from 70% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?
- Plunge
Will Trump's approval rating hit 39% by June 30, 2027? — probability falls to 42.5%
The tracked probability fell to 42.5%, down 5.0 percentage points from 47.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Trump's approval rating hit by June 30, 2027?
- Plunge
Will P.J. Washington lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.15%
The tracked probability fell to 3.15%, down 38.4 percentage points from 41.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will George Pickens have 1,199.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability falls to 39.5%
The tracked probability fell to 39.5%, down 9.0 percentage points from 48.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: George Pickens 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Yards
- Surge
Will Alex Sarr lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 26.15%
The tracked probability rose to 26.15%, up 23.2 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $182 in October? — probability falls to 15.5%
The tracked probability fell to 15.5%, down 19.5 percentage points from 35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in October 2026?
- Plunge
Will Christian McCaffrey finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 12.1%
The tracked probability fell to 12.1%, down 25.7 percentage points from 37.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader