This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between October 2, 2026 and October 31, 2026.
Current leader
53.5%
54%
1 outcome
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 5.05% in October?
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
PlungeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability fell to 53.5%, down 3.5 percentage points from 57% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 57% → 54%
-3.5 ppStory so far
Recently updatedThe tracked probability fell to 53.5%, down 3.5 percentage points from 57% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
A sourced or deterministic market update is available.
Supported by the sources below
What the evidence doesn’t settle
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Public sources opened for this story
No public sources are attached yet.
Odds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 57% to 53.5% (-3.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T07:04:50.573Z to 2026-10-21T09:30:13.568Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 57% → 53.5%
Probability moved from 57% to 53.5% (-3.5 percentage points). Observations were 2 hours 25 minutes 23 seconds apart: 2026-10-21 07:04:50 UTC to 2026-10-21 09:30:13 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 46% to 57% (+11 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T06:50:25.251Z to 2026-10-21T07:04:50.573Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 47.5% to 43.5% (-4 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T22:46:34.146Z to 2026-10-20T23:02:19.474Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 51.5% to 48% (-3.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T21:33:27.573Z to 2026-10-20T21:47:40.010Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 42.5% to 51.5% (+9 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T21:04:34.416Z to 2026-10-20T21:19:32.293Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 39% to 44% (+5 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T17:31:56.258Z to 2026-10-20T20:51:55.691Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 55% to 38.5% (-16.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T16:45:11.590Z to 2026-10-20T17:01:46.397Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 52% to 55% (+3 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T16:17:06.887Z to 2026-10-20T16:30:36.464Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between October 2, 2026 and October 31, 2026.
Resolves No
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for the last business day of October 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for the last business day of October 2026 by November 13, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see:.
Living timeline · 12 significant updates
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 5.05% in October? — probability falls to 53.5%
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