activeCultureCloses Mar 15

Oscars 2027: Best Original Song Nominations

Post

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed song is nominated for the 99th Academy Award for Best Original Song.

Current leader

52.5%

53%

Largest 24h move+19.0 pp 24h

24h volume: $100
Liquidity: $347.8
Scheduled close: Mar 15, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC

Top candidates

1 outcome

Will "How to Write a Song About You" from Power Ballad be nominated for Best Original Song at the 99th Academy Awards?
+19.0 pp 24h53%

Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).

Latest update

SurgeMonitoring onlyOct 21

Will "How to Write a Song About You" from Power Ballad be nominated for Best Original Song at the 99th Academy… — probability rises to 52.5%

The tracked probability rose to 52.5%, up 3.5 percentage points from 49% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.

Yes: 49% → 53%

+3.5 pp

Sources and full timeline

Story so far

Known catalysts

Supported by the sources below

No catalyst has been confirmed yet.

Unresolved questions

What the evidence doesn’t settle

Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.

People and institutions to watch

Nothing specific is being tracked yet.

Source trail

Public sources opened for this story

No public sources are attached yet.

Odds chart

Candidate probability over time

Living timeline

Significant updates

Coverage updated Oct 21, 2026, 9:34 AM UTC
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 49% to 52.5% (+3.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T07:04:50.573Z to 2026-10-21T09:30:13.568Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 49% → 52.5%
What changed
Probability moved from 49% to 52.5% (+3.5 percentage points). Observations were 2 hours 25 minutes 23 seconds apart: 2026-10-21 07:04:50 UTC to 2026-10-21 09:30:13 UTC.
What to watch next
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
Sources
No external sources are attached yet.
Coverage updated Oct 21, 2026, 7:06 AM UTC
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 44% to 49% (+5 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T06:50:25.251Z to 2026-10-21T07:04:50.573Z (UTC).
Coverage updated Oct 21, 2026, 6:51 AM UTC
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 51.5% to 44% (-7.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T06:32:28.344Z to 2026-10-21T06:50:25.251Z (UTC).
Coverage updated Oct 21, 2026, 5:33 AM UTC
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 44% to 49% (+5 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T05:17:25.794Z to 2026-10-21T05:30:29.244Z (UTC).
Coverage updated Oct 21, 2026, 5:03 AM UTC
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 54% to 45% (-9 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T04:47:12.589Z to 2026-10-21T05:02:32.123Z (UTC).
Coverage updated Oct 21, 2026, 4:05 AM UTC
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 51% to 54.5% (+3.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T03:47:54.820Z to 2026-10-21T04:02:56.817Z (UTC).
Coverage updated Oct 21, 2026, 3:49 AM UTC
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 45.5% to 51% (+5.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T03:32:02.969Z to 2026-10-21T03:47:54.820Z (UTC).
Coverage updated Oct 21, 2026, 3:19 AM UTC
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 54.5% to 46.5% (-8 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T03:02:30.010Z to 2026-10-21T03:17:32.619Z (UTC).

Market rules, made readable

Official description

How this market is decided

Read the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.

See what is changing

Resolves Yes

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed song is nominated for the 99th Academy Award for Best Original Song.

Resolves No

If a song is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Original Song when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. If, for any reason, no nominations are declared by March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Maps and resolution sources

oscars.orgoscars.org

Living timeline · 12 significant updates

Will "How to Write a Song About You" from Power Ballad be nominated for Best Original Song at the 99th Academy… — probability rises to 52.5%

Keep exploring

Surge