The 2026 Shanghai, China tennis tournament is scheduled for October 5–18, 2026.
Current leader
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1 outcome
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Shanghai, China?
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
PlungeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability fell to 0.05%, down 16.9 percentage points from 16.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 17% → 0%
-16.9 ppStory so far
Recently updatedThe tracked probability fell to 0.05%, down 16.9 percentage points from 16.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
A sourced or deterministic market update is available.
Supported by the sources below
What the evidence doesn’t settle
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Public sources opened for this story
No public sources are attached yet.
Odds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 16.9% to 0.05% (-16.85 percentage points), from 2026-10-18T11:00:32.425Z to 2026-10-18T11:15:32.872Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 16.9% → 0.05%
Probability moved from 16.9% to 0.05% (-16.85 percentage points). Observations were 15 minutes apart: 2026-10-18 11:00:32 UTC to 2026-10-18 11:15:32 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 45.05% to 16.9% (-28.15 percentage points), from 2026-10-18T10:47:18.464Z to 2026-10-18T11:00:32.425Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 85.7% to 45.05% (-40.65 percentage points), from 2026-10-18T10:15:54.192Z to 2026-10-18T10:47:18.464Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 78.45% to 85.7% (+7.25 percentage points), from 2026-10-18T09:30:44.383Z to 2026-10-18T09:46:09.997Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
Resolves No
If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 Shanghai, China Men’s Singles Tournament per the rules of the tournament, the corresponding market will resolve to "No".
The 2026 Shanghai, China tennis tournament is scheduled for October 5–18, 2026. This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 Shanghai, China Men’s Singles Tournament. If a player who is not listed wins the 2026 Shanghai, China Men’s Singles Tournament, this market will resolve to "Other".
If the 2026 Shanghai, China Men’s Singles Tournament is cancelled, postponed after November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source will be official information from ATP (; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Living timeline · 4 significant updates
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Shanghai, China? — probability falls to 0.05%
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