Living market coverage
Prediction-market movement explanations
The newest sourced PolySays updates about meaningful odds changes, possible catalysts, unresolved signals, and what to watch next.
- Plunge
Will Omarion Hampton finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 30.45%
The tracked probability fell to 30.45%, down 6.7 percentage points from 37.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will San Lorenzo be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability rises to 49.9%
The tracked probability rose to 49.9%, up 46.9 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will Brock Bowers have 11.5+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability falls to 16.1%
The tracked probability fell to 16.1%, down 8.6 percentage points from 24.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: Brock Bowers 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Touchdowns
- Surge
Papertrade FDV above $100M one day after launch? — probability rises to 47%
The tracked probability rose to 47%, up 11.5 percentage points from 35.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Papertrade FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- Surge
Will Emeka Egbuka finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 41.65%
The tracked probability rose to 41.65%, up 36.6 percentage points from 5.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Barcelona: Paris Saint-Germain FC O/U 5.5 — probability falls to 2.35%
The tracked probability fell to 2.35%, down 22.1 percentage points from 24.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Barcelona - More Markets
- Plunge
Mike Evans: Receiving Yards O/U 99.5 — probability falls to 10.5%
The tracked probability fell to 10.5%, down 7.5 percentage points from 18% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Commanders vs. 49ers - Player Props
- Surge
Will the PLQ win 40-43 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election? — probability rises to 63.8%
The tracked probability rose to 63.8%, up 8.6 percentage points from 55.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Quebec General Election: PLQ # Seats?
- Volume
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? — probability falls to 1.95%
Probability moved from 2.05% to 1.95%. Reported rolling 24-hour volume changed from $14.9367 to $20,137.5567. The cause is not established.
Market: What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?
- Plunge
Will there be a safety car during the 2026 F1 Singapore Grand Prix? — probability falls to 6.45%
The tracked probability fell to 6.45%, down 4.8 percentage points from 11.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will there be a safety car during the 2026 F1 Singapore Grand Prix?
- Plunge
Will DJ Moore finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 39.7%
The tracked probability fell to 39.7%, down 8.5 percentage points from 48.2% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Quinshon Judkins finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 34.4%
The tracked probability fell to 34.4%, down 9.8 percentage points from 44.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Walker Kessler lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 7.55%
The tracked probability fell to 7.55%, down 6.5 percentage points from 14.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Fenerbahçe SK vs. SK Slavia Praha: Fenerbahçe SK O/U 5.5 — probability rises to 22.45%
The tracked probability rose to 22.45%, up 21.1 percentage points from 1.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fenerbahçe SK vs. SK Slavia Praha - More Markets
- Plunge
Will Trump's approval rating hit 39% by June 30, 2027? — probability falls to 48%
The tracked probability fell to 48%, down 13.0 percentage points from 61% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Trump's approval rating hit by June 30, 2027?
- Surge
Will Rashee Rice finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 46.1%
The tracked probability rose to 46.1%, up 7.7 percentage points from 38.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will A.J. Brown finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 30.9%
The tracked probability fell to 30.9%, down 9.7 percentage points from 40.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Nathan Fielder be nominated for Best Director at the 99th Academy Awards? — probability falls to 57.7%
The tracked probability fell to 57.7%, down 4.3 percentage points from 61.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Oscars 2027: Best Director Nominations
- Plunge
Will SK hynix (SKHY) hit (LOW) $132 Week of October 19 2026? — probability falls to 41%
The tracked probability fell to 41%, down 9.5 percentage points from 50.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will SK hynix (SKHY) hit Week of October 19 2026?
- Plunge
Will DeVonta Smith finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 30.65%
The tracked probability fell to 30.65%, down 4.7 percentage points from 35.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Alec Pierce finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 28.35%
The tracked probability fell to 28.35%, down 9.5 percentage points from 37.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Lynn Vision Gaming qualify to PGL Major Singapore 2026? — probability rises to 46.85%
The tracked probability rose to 46.85%, up 13.0 percentage points from 33.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Which teams will qualify to PGL Major Singapore 2026?
- Plunge
Will Kyle Pitts Sr. finish as a top-12 TE in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability falls to 16.45%
The tracked probability fell to 16.45%, down 16.5 percentage points from 32.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 12 Scoring TEs
- Surge
Will Twice release a song in 2026? — probability rises to 55%
The tracked probability rose to 55%, up 5.0 percentage points from 50.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Which KPop groups will release songs in 2026?
- Plunge
Will Le Havre finish in the top 4 of the 2026-27 Ligue 1 season? — probability falls to 20%
The tracked probability fell to 20%, down 9.0 percentage points from 29.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Ligue 1 Top 4 Finishers (2026-27)
- Plunge
Will Rome Odunze have 10+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability falls to 11.6%
The tracked probability fell to 11.6%, down 5.5 percentage points from 17.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 10+ Receiving Touchdowns
- Plunge
Will Bucky Irving finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 34.8%
The tracked probability fell to 34.8%, down 9.6 percentage points from 44.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Aida Hadžialić be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Stockholm? — probability falls to 60.15%
The tracked probability fell to 60.15%, down 7.6 percentage points from 67.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Next Regional Board Chair of Stockholm?
- Plunge
Will Josh Jacobs finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 18.75%
The tracked probability fell to 18.75%, down 9.7 percentage points from 28.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.43% in October? — probability rises to 62%
The tracked probability rose to 62%, up 4.5 percentage points from 57.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: How low will 30-year Treasury yield get in October?
- Surge
Will Nolan McLean win a 2026 NL Gold Glove Award? — probability rises to 43.5%
The tracked probability rose to 43.5%, up 4.5 percentage points from 39% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 NL Gold Glove Winners
- Plunge
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $180 in October? — probability falls to 54.5%
The tracked probability fell to 54.5%, down 3.5 percentage points from 58% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit in October 2026?
- Plunge
Will CeeDee Lamb have 1,399.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability falls to 45.5%
The tracked probability fell to 45.5%, down 14.5 percentage points from 60% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: CeeDee Lamb 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Yards
- Surge
Will Michael McGreevy win a 2026 NL Gold Glove Award? — probability rises to 45.5%
The tracked probability rose to 45.5%, up 7.0 percentage points from 38.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 NL Gold Glove Winners
- Plunge
Will Rome Odunze finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 17.55%
The tracked probability fell to 17.55%, down 10.6 percentage points from 28.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will "Please" be nominated for Best Animated Short Film at the 99th Academy Awards? — probability falls to 44%
The tracked probability fell to 44%, down 12.5 percentage points from 56.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Oscars 2027: Best Animated Short Film Nominations
- Plunge
Will Jaylen Brown lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 2.6%
The tracked probability fell to 2.6%, down 24.5 percentage points from 27.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 5.05% in October? — probability rises to 44.5%
The tracked probability rose to 44.5%, up 3.0 percentage points from 41.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in October?
- Plunge
Will Brock Bowers finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 42.8%
The tracked probability fell to 42.8%, down 4.6 percentage points from 47.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Omarion Hampton finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 37.15%
The tracked probability fell to 37.15%, down 8.8 percentage points from 45.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Brock Bowers have 11.5+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability rises to 24.7%
The tracked probability rose to 24.7%, up 6.3 percentage points from 18.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: Brock Bowers 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Touchdowns
- Plunge
Will William Eklund record 100+ points? — probability falls to 3.35%
The tracked probability fell to 3.35%, down 46.4 percentage points from 49.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NHL: Players to Record 100+ Points
- Surge
Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 31, 2026? — probability rises to 71.5%
The tracked probability rose to 71.5%, up 4.5 percentage points from 67% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by...?
- Plunge
Will Rome Odunze finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 28.15%
The tracked probability fell to 28.15%, down 5.7 percentage points from 33.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will the lowest temperature in Amsterdam be 9°C on October 19? — probability falls to 50.55%
The tracked probability fell to 50.55%, down 44.5 percentage points from 95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lowest temperature in Amsterdam on October 19?
- Plunge
Will the PLQ win 40-43 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election? — probability falls to 55.25%
The tracked probability fell to 55.25%, down 12.2 percentage points from 67.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Quebec General Election: PLQ # Seats?
- Plunge
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 15, 2026? — probability falls to 44.5%
The tracked probability fell to 44.5%, down 3.5 percentage points from 48% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?
- Plunge
Mike Evans: Receiving Yards O/U 99.5 — probability falls to 18%
The tracked probability fell to 18%, down 56.5 percentage points from 74.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Commanders vs. 49ers - Player Props
- Plunge
Will Boulaye Dia score the most goals in the 2026-27 UEFA Europa League? — probability falls to 5.8%
The tracked probability fell to 5.8%, down 16.0 percentage points from 21.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: UEFA Europa League: Top Scorer 2026-27
- Plunge
Will Neemias Queta lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 47.3 percentage points from 50.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader