Living market coverage
Prediction-market movement explanations
The newest sourced PolySays updates about meaningful odds changes, possible catalysts, unresolved signals, and what to watch next.
- Surge
Will the PLQ win 40-43 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election? — probability rises to 76.7%
The tracked probability rose to 76.7%, up 23.4 percentage points from 53.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Quebec General Election: PLQ # Seats?
- Surge
Will "Please" be nominated for Best Animated Short Film at the 99th Academy Awards? — probability rises to 48%
The tracked probability rose to 48%, up 4.0 percentage points from 44% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Oscars 2027: Best Animated Short Film Nominations
- Plunge
Will Justin Jefferson finish as a top-12 WR in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability falls to 64.5%
The tracked probability fell to 64.5%, down 23.5 percentage points from 88% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 12 Scoring WRs
- Plunge
Will Brock Bowers finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 34%
The tracked probability fell to 34%, down 4.2 percentage points from 38.2% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Omarion Hampton finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 26.15%
The tracked probability fell to 26.15%, down 4.3 percentage points from 30.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Brock Bowers have 11.5+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability rises to 24.65%
The tracked probability rose to 24.65%, up 8.5 percentage points from 16.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: Brock Bowers 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Touchdowns
- Surge
Will the lowest temperature in Buenos Aires be 6°C on October 19? — probability rises to 98.95%
The tracked probability rose to 98.95%, up 5.4 percentage points from 93.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lowest temperature in Buenos Aires on October 19?
- Plunge
Will [link omitted], Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $264 Week of October 19 2026? — probability falls to 84%
The tracked probability fell to 84%, down 4.0 percentage points from 88% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit Week of October 19 2026?
- Plunge
Will Mark Stone record 80+ points in the 2026-27 regular season? — probability falls to 55.5%
The tracked probability fell to 55.5%, down 6.0 percentage points from 61.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NHL: Players to Record 80+ Points
- Plunge
Will Zhejiang be relegated from the 2026 Chinese Super League? — probability falls to 2.85%
The tracked probability fell to 2.85%, down 22.3 percentage points from 25.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Chinese Super League: Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will DeVonta Smith finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 20.95%
The tracked probability fell to 20.95%, down 5.2 percentage points from 26.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Alec Pierce finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 17.75%
The tracked probability fell to 17.75%, down 5.1 percentage points from 22.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Emeka Egbuka finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 30.55%
The tracked probability fell to 30.55%, down 5.2 percentage points from 35.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Quinshon Judkins finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 20.9%
The tracked probability fell to 20.9%, down 7.6 percentage points from 28.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Le Havre finish in the top 4 of the 2026-27 Ligue 1 season? — probability rises to 41%
The tracked probability rose to 41%, up 17.4 percentage points from 23.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Ligue 1 Top 4 Finishers (2026-27)
- Plunge
Will the PQ win 55-59 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election? — probability falls to 76.8%
The tracked probability fell to 76.8%, down 4.5 percentage points from 81.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Quebec General Election: PQ # Seats?
- Plunge
CD Riestra vs. CA Unión: O/U 7.5 — probability falls to 0.05%
The tracked probability fell to 0.05%, down 49.0 percentage points from 49.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: CD Riestra vs. CA Unión - More Markets
- Plunge
Will A.J. Brown finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 17.35%
The tracked probability fell to 17.35%, down 7.7 percentage points from 25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Rashee Rice finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 35.2%
The tracked probability fell to 35.2%, down 5.1 percentage points from 40.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 4? — probability falls to 58.7%
The tracked probability fell to 58.7%, down 5.8 percentage points from 64.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...?
- Plunge
Will Dalton Kincaid finish as a top-12 TE in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability falls to 26%
The tracked probability fell to 26%, down 4.0 percentage points from 30% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 12 Scoring TEs
- Surge
Papertrade FDV above $100M one day after launch? — probability rises to 47%
The tracked probability rose to 47%, up 11.5 percentage points from 35.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Papertrade FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- Surge
Will Walker Kessler lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 24.85%
The tracked probability rose to 24.85%, up 17.3 percentage points from 7.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Allisha Gray: Rebounds O/U 3.5 — probability rises to 99.95%
The tracked probability rose to 99.95%, up 7.5 percentage points from 92.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries
- Surge
Exact Score: Sporting FC 3 - 3 AD San Carlos? — probability rises to 99.95%
The tracked probability rose to 99.95%, up 26.9 percentage points from 73.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Sporting FC vs. AD San Carlos - Exact Score
- Plunge
Naz Hillmon: Rebounds O/U 3.5 — probability falls to 93.5%
The tracked probability fell to 93.5%, down 4.5 percentage points from 98.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries
- Surge
CD Riestra vs. CA Unión: O/U 7.5 — probability rises to 49.05%
The tracked probability rose to 49.05%, up 48.9 percentage points from 0.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: CD Riestra vs. CA Unión - More Markets
- Surge
Will there be a safety car during the 2026 F1 Singapore Grand Prix? — probability rises to 12.5%
The tracked probability rose to 12.5%, up 6.0 percentage points from 6.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will there be a safety car during the 2026 F1 Singapore Grand Prix?
- Plunge
Will DJ Moore finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 34%
The tracked probability fell to 34%, down 5.7 percentage points from 39.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Noe Khlif qualify for the 2027 PPA Tour Finals? — probability rises to 24.5%
The tracked probability rose to 24.5%, up 7.5 percentage points from 17% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: 2027 PPA Tour Finals: Player to Qualify (Men's)
- Plunge
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $182 in October? — probability falls to 9%
The tracked probability fell to 9%, down 4.0 percentage points from 13% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in October 2026?
- Plunge
Will "The Blood of Dawnwalker" win Ultimate Game of the Year at the 2026 Golden Joystick Awards? — probability falls to 0.6%
The tracked probability fell to 0.6%, down 3.4 percentage points from 3.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Golden Joystick Awards: Ultimate Game of the Year Winner
- Plunge
Will Colgate-Palmolive (CL) beat quarterly earnings? — probability falls to 37%
The tracked probability fell to 37%, down 8.5 percentage points from 45.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will Colgate-Palmolive (CL) beat quarterly earnings?
- Plunge
Will Quinshon Judkins finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 28.5%
The tracked probability fell to 28.5%, down 5.9 percentage points from 34.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Rashee Rice finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 40.3%
The tracked probability fell to 40.3%, down 5.8 percentage points from 46.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will A.J. Brown finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 25%
The tracked probability fell to 25%, down 5.9 percentage points from 30.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Nathan Fielder be nominated for Best Director at the 99th Academy Awards? — probability rises to 62%
The tracked probability rose to 62%, up 4.3 percentage points from 57.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Oscars 2027: Best Director Nominations
- Surge
Will Zhejiang be relegated from the 2026 Chinese Super League? — probability rises to 25.1%
The tracked probability rose to 25.1%, up 22.1 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Chinese Super League: Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will DeVonta Smith finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 26.1%
The tracked probability fell to 26.1%, down 4.5 percentage points from 30.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Alec Pierce finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 22.8%
The tracked probability fell to 22.8%, down 5.5 percentage points from 28.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Emeka Egbuka finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 35.75%
The tracked probability fell to 35.75%, down 5.9 percentage points from 41.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Le Havre finish in the top 4 of the 2026-27 Ligue 1 season? — probability rises to 23.6%
The tracked probability rose to 23.6%, up 3.6 percentage points from 20% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Ligue 1 Top 4 Finishers (2026-27)
- Surge
Will Rome Odunze have 10+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability rises to 17.05%
The tracked probability rose to 17.05%, up 5.5 percentage points from 11.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 10+ Receiving Touchdowns
- Plunge
Will Bucky Irving finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 28.9%
The tracked probability fell to 28.9%, down 5.9 percentage points from 34.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Mauricio Dubón win a 2026 NL Gold Glove Award? — probability rises to 88.2%
The tracked probability rose to 88.2%, up 11.8 percentage points from 76.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 NL Gold Glove Winners
- Plunge
Will Josh Jacobs finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 13.05%
The tracked probability fell to 13.05%, down 5.7 percentage points from 18.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $180 in October? — probability rises to 39%
The tracked probability rose to 39%, up 23.0 percentage points from 16% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in October 2026?
- Plunge
Will Rome Odunze finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 11.65%
The tracked probability fell to 11.65%, down 5.9 percentage points from 17.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will the PLQ win 40-43 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election? — probability falls to 53.35%
The tracked probability fell to 53.35%, down 10.5 percentage points from 63.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Quebec General Election: PLQ # Seats?
- Surge
Will Jaylen Brown lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 27.05%
The tracked probability rose to 27.05%, up 24.5 percentage points from 2.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader