What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?
By PolySays EditorialUpdated Editorial method
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- Current leader
- Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026 86%
- Largest 24h move
- Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2026 -7%
- 24h volume
- 1.4M
- Liquidity
- 2.1M
Top candidates
34 outcomes
Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026
86%
0% 24h
Bitcoin reach $75,000 by December 31, 2026
86%
0% 24h
Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2026
86%
-3% 24h
Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026
68%
-3% 24h
Bitcoin reach $85,000 by December 31, 2026
65%
+2% 24h
Show all outcomes
Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026
49%
+1%
Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2026
44%
-7%
Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026
38%
+1%
Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026
34%
-3%
Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026
27%
+2%
Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026
25%
0%
Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026
20%
0%
Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026
18%
0%
Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026
12%
0%
Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026
11%
0%
Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026
8%
0%
Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026
7%
0%
Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026
7%
0%
Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026
6%
0%
Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026
4%
0%
Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026
4%
0%
Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026
4%
0%
Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026
3%
0%
Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026
2%
0%
Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026
2%
0%
Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026
2%
0%
Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026
2%
—
Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026
2%
—
Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026
2%
—
Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026
2%
—
Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026
1%
—
Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026
1%
0%
Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026
1%
0%
Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026
1%
0%
Odds chart
Candidate probability over time
Story so far
Needs a refreshBitcoin market odds on Polymarket have been volatile. After a sharp rise in the Yes odds for BTC reaching $90,000 by December 31, 2026, the latest update shows the Yes odds for BTC dipping to $40,000 by December 31, 2026 falling from 15.5% to 8.5% over the 24 hours ending August 20, 2026 19:03 UTC. The move appears to have lined up with broader bullish Bitcoin chatter, but the exact driver is unconfirmed.
No major update has changed the story in 9 days.
Latest update
Polymarket odds for a $40K Bitcoin dip fall 7 points in 24 hours
Polymarket’s Yes odds for Bitcoin dipping to $40,000 by December 31, 2026 dropped from 15.5% to 8.5% over the 24 hours ending August 20, 2026 19:03 UTC. The move appears to have coincided with broader bullish Bitcoin chatter, but the exact driver is unconfirmed.
Why this matters
Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.
Known catalysts
- The latest 24-hour move was a Polymarket-reported 7.0 point drop in Yes odds for a $40,000 Bitcoin dip.
- The earlier odds surge coincided with fresh coverage of bullish year-end Bitcoin views.
- Earlier related commentary referenced Anthony Scaramucci’s $100,000 call and Standard Chartered’s year-end 2026 BTC view.
- The exact driver of the latest move remains unconfirmed.
Unresolved questions
- Whether the latest drop reflects a durable shift in market conviction or a short-lived reaction.
- How much of the move was driven by bullish Bitcoin commentary versus unrelated market flow.
- Whether subsequent BTC price action or new commentary reverses or extends the move.
People and institutions to watch
Source trail
No public sources are attached yet.
Living timeline
Significant updates
Polymarket’s Yes side on the Bitcoin-to-$40,000-by-December-31-2026 market slid sharply over the 24-hour window from August 19, 2026 19:03 UTC to August 20, 2026 19:03 UTC. Odds moved from 15.5% to 8.5%, a 7.0-point decline. The supplied context does not confirm a single catalyst. A contextual news item about short-term holders dumping 40,000 BTC as Bitcoin hit $97K may have aligned with broader volatility, but that link is not established here. The move is best read as a market repricing rather than a confirmed reaction to one headline.
What changed
Bitcoin’s Polymarket market for a $40,000 dip by December 31, 2026 likely repriced lower as the Yes odds fell 7.0 points in 24 hours, and the move appears to have coincided with fresh BTC volatility and bullish year-end commentary, though no exact cause is confirmed.
What to watch next
Watch whether Bitcoin’s spot price keeps trading near recent highs, whether additional volatility headlines emerge, and whether Polymarket order flow extends the decline in $40K-dip odds or reverses it.
Sources
- Short-Term Holders Dump 40,000 BTC As Bitcoin Hits $97K For First Time Since November - Yellow.comsearchrelevance 88%· Yellow.com
Short-Term Holders Dump 40,000 BTC As Bitcoin Hits $97K For First Time Since November Yellow.com
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