Living market coverage
Prediction-market movement explanations
The newest sourced PolySays updates about meaningful odds changes, possible catalysts, unresolved signals, and what to watch next.
- Plunge
Will P.J. Washington lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 36.1 percentage points from 39.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Chet Holmgren lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 19.15%
The tracked probability fell to 19.15%, down 5.5 percentage points from 24.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Rome Odunze finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 39.05%
The tracked probability fell to 39.05%, down 8.6 percentage points from 47.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by October 31, 2026? — probability rises to 70.5%
The tracked probability rose to 70.5%, up 22.5 percentage points from 48% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Who will Trump publicly insult by October 31?
- Surge
Will Mitchell Robinson lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 33.95%
The tracked probability rose to 33.95%, up 30.9 percentage points from 3.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Hannes Steinbach lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 30.4 percentage points from 33.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Alex Sarr lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 16.4 percentage points from 19.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Josh Hart lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 41.3 percentage points from 44.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Neemias Queta lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 28.5%
The tracked probability rose to 28.5%, up 25.9 percentage points from 2.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will AmaZulu be relegated from the 2026-27 South Africa Premiership? — probability rises to 10.5%
The tracked probability rose to 10.5%, up 7.5 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: South Africa Premiership: Teams relegated (2026-27)
- Plunge
Will Shanghai Port be relegated from the 2026 Chinese Super League? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 46.6 percentage points from 49.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Chinese Super League: Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $55 Week of October 12 2026? — probability falls to 3.7%
The tracked probability fell to 3.7%, down 33.6 percentage points from 37.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Silver (XAGUSD) hit Week of October 12 2026?
- Plunge
Will Josh Giddey lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 46.9 percentage points from 49.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Noah Fant finish as a top-5 TE in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability falls to 3.1%
The tracked probability fell to 3.1%, down 46.0 percentage points from 49.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 5 Scoring TEs
- Surge
Will the biggest earthquake on October 15, 2026 be 5.5 to 5.6? — probability rises to 96.8%
The tracked probability rose to 96.8%, up 47.8 percentage points from 49.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will the biggest earthquake be on October 15, 2026?
- Plunge
Will A.J. Brown finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 27.65%
The tracked probability fell to 27.65%, down 14.8 percentage points from 42.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Bucky Irving finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 19.8%
The tracked probability fell to 19.8%, down 17.2 percentage points from 37% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Alec Pierce finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 19.35%
The tracked probability fell to 19.35%, down 13.5 percentage points from 32.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Alianza Lima be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1? — probability rises to 45.5%
The tracked probability rose to 45.5%, up 42.5 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Peru Liga 1: Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will Tigre be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability rises to 45.15%
The tracked probability rose to 45.15%, up 42.1 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will San Lorenzo be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 17.3 percentage points from 20.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $547.50 Week of October 12 2026? — probability rises to 26%
The tracked probability rose to 26%, up 5.5 percentage points from 20.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit Week of October 12 2026?
- Plunge
Will A.J. Brown have 10+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability falls to 20.05%
The tracked probability fell to 20.05%, down 11.3 percentage points from 31.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 10+ Receiving Touchdowns
- Surge
Will AbbVie Q3 Global Skyrizi net revenues be above $5.5B? — probability rises to 68.5%
The tracked probability rose to 68.5%, up 4.0 percentage points from 64.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will AbbVie Q3 Global Skyrizi net revenues be above __?
- Plunge
Will Sam LaPorta finish as a top-12 TE in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability falls to 67.5%
The tracked probability fell to 67.5%, down 7.5 percentage points from 75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 12 Scoring TEs
- Plunge
Will Corinthians be relegated from the 2026 Brazil Série A? — probability falls to 42%
The tracked probability fell to 42%, down 7.5 percentage points from 49.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Brazil Série A: Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
M15 Heraklion: Julio Cesar Porras vs Valentin Gonzalez-Galino — probability falls to 0.05%
The tracked probability fell to 0.05%, down 6.5 percentage points from 6.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: M15 Heraklion: Julio Cesar Porras vs Valentin Gonzalez-Galino
- Plunge
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $152 in October? — probability falls to 41%
The tracked probability fell to 41%, down 8.5 percentage points from 49.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit in October 2026?
- Surge
Will Le Havre finish in the top 4 of the 2026-27 Ligue 1 season? — probability rises to 41.15%
The tracked probability rose to 41.15%, up 38.0 percentage points from 3.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Ligue 1 Top 4 Finishers (2026-27)
- Plunge
Will Christian McCaffrey finish as a top-5 RB in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability falls to 56%
The tracked probability fell to 56%, down 4.5 percentage points from 60.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 5 Scoring RBs
- Plunge
Will Meta (META) finish week of October 12 above $750? — probability falls to 15.5%
The tracked probability fell to 15.5%, down 8.0 percentage points from 23.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will Meta (META) finish week of October 12 above___?
- Surge
Will Wendell Carter Jr. lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 20.65%
The tracked probability rose to 20.65%, up 17.5 percentage points from 3.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Nolan McLean win a 2026 NL Gold Glove Award? — probability rises to 58.5%
The tracked probability rose to 58.5%, up 8.0 percentage points from 50.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 NL Gold Glove Winners
- Plunge
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 16, 2026? — probability falls to 93.75%
The tracked probability fell to 93.75%, down 3.1 percentage points from 96.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will Russia target Kyiv on...?
- Plunge
Will Dillon Dingler win a 2026 AL Gold Glove Award? — probability falls to 23.5%
The tracked probability fell to 23.5%, down 4.5 percentage points from 28% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 AL Gold Glove Winners
- Plunge
Will Tina Pisnik reach the Final of the 2027 PPA Tour Finals? — probability falls to 14%
The tracked probability fell to 14%, down 3.0 percentage points from 17% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: 2027 PPA Tour Finals: To Reach the Final (Women's)
- Surge
Will Rudy Gobert lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 17%
The tracked probability rose to 17%, up 13.0 percentage points from 4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Spread: Boluspor (-1.5) — probability rises to 51.25%
The tracked probability rose to 51.25%, up 33.6 percentage points from 17.6% in the latest observation window. The cause of this move is not established.
Market: Umraniyespor vs. Boluspor - More Markets
- Plunge
Will Brock Bowers finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 17.75%
The tracked probability fell to 17.75%, down 14.9 percentage points from 32.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will DJ Moore finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 27.8%
The tracked probability fell to 27.8%, down 17.3 percentage points from 45.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 15, 2026? — probability rises to 22.5%
The tracked probability rose to 22.5%, up 4.0 percentage points from 18.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?
- Surge
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on October 16? — probability rises to 93%
The tracked probability rose to 93%, up 20.5 percentage points from 72.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Highest temperature in Hong Kong on October 16?
- Surge
Will the lowest temperature in Los Angeles be between 60-61°F on October 15? — probability rises to 98%
The tracked probability rose to 98%, up 3.0 percentage points from 95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lowest temperature in Los Angeles on October 15?
- Plunge
Will Independiente be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 17.2 percentage points from 20.2% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will Josh Jacobs finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 31.05%
The tracked probability fell to 31.05%, down 17.0 percentage points from 48.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Luka Doncic lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 24.95%
The tracked probability rose to 24.95%, up 21.9 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will William Eklund record 100+ points? — probability falls to 25.25%
The tracked probability fell to 25.25%, down 24.3 percentage points from 49.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NHL: Players to Record 100+ Points
- Plunge
Will Quinshon Judkins finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 39.4%
The tracked probability fell to 39.4%, down 8.7 percentage points from 48.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will DeVonta Smith finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 42%
The tracked probability fell to 42%, down 6.1 percentage points from 48.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Omarion Hampton finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 36.3%
The tracked probability fell to 36.3%, down 11.9 percentage points from 48.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader