This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team is relegated from Brazil Série A at the conclusion of the 2026 Brazil Série A season.
Current leader
50%
50%
2 outcomes
Will Santos be relegated from the 2026 Brazil Série A?
Will Corinthians be relegated from the 2026 Brazil Série A?
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
PlungeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability fell to 40.5%, down 3.5 percentage points from 44% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 44% → 41%
-3.5 ppStory so far
Recently updatedThe tracked probability fell to 40.5%, down 3.5 percentage points from 44% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
A sourced or deterministic market update is available.
Supported by the sources below
What the evidence doesn’t settle
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Public sources opened for this story
No public sources are attached yet.
Odds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 44% to 40.5% (-3.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T05:01:09.907Z to 2026-10-20T05:16:58.056Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 44% → 40.5%
Probability moved from 44% to 40.5% (-3.5 percentage points). Observations were 15 minutes 48 seconds apart: 2026-10-20 05:01:09 UTC to 2026-10-20 05:16:58 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 57% to 44% (-13 percentage points), from 2026-10-19T21:21:40.916Z to 2026-10-19T21:31:01.579Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 45.45% to 50% (+4.55 percentage points), from 2026-10-16T19:30:57.337Z to 2026-10-16T19:47:11.281Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 3.05% to 45.5% (+42.45 percentage points), from 2026-10-16T15:47:46.549Z to 2026-10-16T16:00:56.545Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 50% to 3.55% (-46.45 percentage points), from 2026-10-16T15:00:22.311Z to 2026-10-16T15:16:33.647Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 42% to 52.5% (+10.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-16T14:31:17.859Z to 2026-10-16T14:46:05.689Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 3% to 50% (+47 percentage points), from 2026-10-16T14:31:17.859Z to 2026-10-16T14:46:05.689Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 50.5% to 42% (-8.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-16T14:01:11.673Z to 2026-10-16T14:31:17.859Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team is relegated from Brazil Série A at the conclusion of the 2026 Brazil Série A season.
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Official relegation is defined as a team losing its place in Brazil Série A for the following season through their final standing in the 2026 Brazil Série A, via relegation playoff defeat, or by any other official league decision recognized by Brazil Série A.
If the 2026 Brazil Série A season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there are no teams confirmed for relegation within that timeframe, the corresponding market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be official announcements from Brazil Série A. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Living timeline · 12 significant updates
Will Corinthians be relegated from the 2026 Brazil Série A? — probability falls to 40.5%
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