This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 16 Oct '26.
Current leader
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2 outcomes
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on October 16?
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on October 16?
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
SurgeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability rose to 97.3%, up 4.3 percentage points from 93% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 93% → 97%
+4.3 ppStory so far
Recently updatedThe tracked probability rose to 97.3%, up 4.3 percentage points from 93% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
A sourced or deterministic market update is available.
Supported by the sources below
What the evidence doesn’t settle
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Public sources opened for this story
No public sources are attached yet.
Odds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 93% to 97.3% (+4.3 percentage points), from 2026-10-16T07:19:15.317Z to 2026-10-16T07:32:53.588Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 93% → 97.3%
Probability moved from 93% to 97.3% (+4.3 percentage points). Observations were 13 minutes 38 seconds apart: 2026-10-16 07:19:15 UTC to 2026-10-16 07:32:53 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 72.5% to 93% (+20.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-16T06:49:01.586Z to 2026-10-16T07:19:15.317Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 89.5% to 72.5% (-17 percentage points), from 2026-10-16T06:30:56.696Z to 2026-10-16T06:49:01.586Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 16 Oct '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg.
C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions published after the Hong Kong Observatory's initial publication of data for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution. That initial publication is the revisions cutoff.
In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source.
If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions remain subject to the cutoff above.
The only exception is a correction of a clearly erroneous print under the preceding paragraph, which will be used even if published after the cutoff.
Living timeline · 3 significant updates
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on October 16? — probability rises to 97.3%
Keep exploring
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on October 16?
SurgeHighest temperature in Hong Kong on October 16?
PlungeHighest temperature in Hong Kong on October 16?
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