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South Africa Premiership: Teams relegated (2026-27)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team is relegated from South Africa Premiership at the conclusion of the 2026-27 South Africa Premiership season.

Current leader

49.9%

50%

Largest 24h move+0.4 pp 24h

24h volume: $0
Liquidity: $2.7
Scheduled close: Jul 1, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC

Top candidates

1 outcome

Will AmaZulu be relegated from the 2026-27 South Africa Premiership?
+0.4 pp 24h50%

Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).

Latest update

SurgeMonitoring onlyOct 16

Will AmaZulu be relegated from the 2026-27 South Africa Premiership? — probability rises to 49.9%

The tracked probability rose to 49.9%, up 46.9 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.

Yes: 3% → 50%

+46.9 pp

Sources and full timeline

Story so far

Known catalysts

Supported by the sources below

No catalyst has been confirmed yet.

Unresolved questions

What the evidence doesn’t settle

Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.

People and institutions to watch

Nothing specific is being tracked yet.

Source trail

Public sources opened for this story

No public sources are attached yet.

Odds chart

Candidate probability over time

Living timeline

Significant updates

Coverage updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:26 PM UTC
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 3% to 49.9% (+46.9 percentage points), from 2026-10-16T12:49:23.004Z to 2026-10-16T13:22:42.907Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 3% → 49.9%
What changed
Probability moved from 3% to 49.9% (+46.9 percentage points). Observations were 33 minutes 20 seconds apart: 2026-10-16 12:49:23 UTC to 2026-10-16 13:22:42 UTC.
What to watch next
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
Sources
No external sources are attached yet.
Coverage updated Oct 16, 2026, 11:38 AM UTC
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 23.05% to 3% (-20.05 percentage points), from 2026-10-16T11:04:27.542Z to 2026-10-16T11:33:20.179Z (UTC).
Coverage updated Oct 16, 2026, 11:12 AM UTC
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 3% to 23.05% (+20.05 percentage points), from 2026-10-16T10:47:51.784Z to 2026-10-16T11:04:27.542Z (UTC).
Coverage updated Oct 16, 2026, 10:20 AM UTC
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 23% to 3% (-20 percentage points), from 2026-10-16T10:02:32.389Z to 2026-10-16T10:17:58.736Z (UTC).
Coverage updated Oct 16, 2026, 10:05 AM UTC
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 3% to 23% (+20 percentage points), from 2026-10-16T09:49:34.325Z to 2026-10-16T10:02:32.389Z (UTC).
Coverage updated Oct 16, 2026, 9:55 AM UTC
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 23% to 3% (-20 percentage points), from 2026-10-16T09:33:18.972Z to 2026-10-16T09:49:34.325Z (UTC).
Coverage updated Oct 16, 2026, 9:38 AM UTC
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 11.8% to 23% (+11.2 percentage points), from 2026-10-16T09:03:22.605Z to 2026-10-16T09:33:18.972Z (UTC).
Coverage updated Oct 16, 2026, 9:08 AM UTC
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 3% to 11.8% (+8.8 percentage points), from 2026-10-16T08:46:24.405Z to 2026-10-16T09:03:22.605Z (UTC).

Market rules, made readable

Official description

How this market is decided

Read the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.

See what is changing

Resolves Yes

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team is relegated from South Africa Premiership at the conclusion of the 2026-27 South Africa Premiership season.

Resolves No

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Official relegation is defined as a team losing its place in South Africa Premiership for the following season through their final standing in the 2026-27 South Africa Premiership, via relegation playoff defeat, or by any other official league decision recognized by South Africa Premiership.

If the 2026-27 South Africa Premiership season is cancelled, postponed after June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or there are no teams confirmed for relegation within that timeframe, the corresponding market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be official announcements from South Africa Premiership. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Living timeline · 12 significant updates

Will AmaZulu be relegated from the 2026-27 South Africa Premiership? — probability rises to 49.9%

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