Living market coverage
Prediction-market movement explanations
The newest sourced PolySays updates about meaningful odds changes, possible catalysts, unresolved signals, and what to watch next.
- Surge
Will Deandre Ayton lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 28.55%
The tracked probability rose to 28.55%, up 19.5 percentage points from 9.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Masyn Winn win a 2026 NL Gold Glove Award? — probability falls to 58.5%
The tracked probability fell to 58.5%, down 11.0 percentage points from 69.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 NL Gold Glove Winners
- Surge
Will AmaZulu be relegated from the 2026-27 South Africa Premiership? — probability rises to 10.5%
The tracked probability rose to 10.5%, up 7.5 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: South Africa Premiership: Teams relegated (2026-27)
- Plunge
Will Inde Navarrette be nominated for Best Actress at the 99th Academy Awards? — probability falls to 82%
The tracked probability fell to 82%, down 7.0 percentage points from 89% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Oscars 2027: Best Actress Nominations
- Plunge
Will Le Havre finish in the top 4 of the 2026-27 Ligue 1 season? — probability falls to 3.1%
The tracked probability fell to 3.1%, down 38.0 percentage points from 41.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Ligue 1 Top 4 Finishers (2026-27)
- Surge
Will Jacob Young win a 2026 NL Gold Glove Award? — probability rises to 25.25%
The tracked probability rose to 25.25%, up 17.5 percentage points from 7.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 NL Gold Glove Winners
- Plunge
Will Brock Bowers finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 3.35%
The tracked probability fell to 3.35%, down 5.6 percentage points from 8.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will FlyQuest qualify to PGL Major Singapore 2026? — probability falls to 74%
The tracked probability fell to 74%, down 13.0 percentage points from 87% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Which teams will qualify to PGL Major Singapore 2026?
- Plunge
Will Alec Pierce finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 7.75%
The tracked probability fell to 7.75%, down 3.0 percentage points from 10.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Bucky Irving finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 7%
The tracked probability fell to 7%, down 4.5 percentage points from 11.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Adrian Kempe record 30+ goals in the 2026-27 regular season? — probability rises to 64.5%
The tracked probability rose to 64.5%, up 6.5 percentage points from 58% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NHL: Players to Record 30+ Goals
- Plunge
Will LEVIATÁN make a roster change by December? — probability falls to 68.55%
The tracked probability fell to 68.55%, down 17.5 percentage points from 86.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Which Teams Will Make a Roster Change Before December?
- Plunge
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Hakeem Jeffries by October 31, 2026? — probability falls to 65.5%
The tracked probability fell to 65.5%, down 19.0 percentage points from 84.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Who will Trump publicly insult by October 31?
- Plunge
Will Jayson Tatum lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 30.8 percentage points from 33.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Alianza Lima be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 16.0 percentage points from 19% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Peru Liga 1: Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will Lauri Markkanen lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 25.5 percentage points from 28.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Nikita Kucherov record 40+ goals in the 2026-27 regular season? — probability falls to 16%
The tracked probability fell to 16%, down 10.0 percentage points from 26% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NHL: Players to Record 40+ Goals
- Surge
Will Josh Hart lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 25.05%
The tracked probability rose to 25.05%, up 22.1 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Jared Goff finish as a top-12 QB in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability rises to 63%
The tracked probability rose to 63%, up 11.5 percentage points from 51.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 12 Scoring QBs
- Plunge
Will Omarion Hampton finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 11.8%
The tracked probability fell to 11.8%, down 8.8 percentage points from 20.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Rudy Gobert lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 4%
The tracked probability fell to 4%, down 36.3 percentage points from 40.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Quinshon Judkins finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 11.4%
The tracked probability fell to 11.4%, down 8.9 percentage points from 20.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Jayson Tatum lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 33.8%
The tracked probability rose to 33.8%, up 11.3 percentage points from 22.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Mark Scheifele record 30+ goals in the 2026-27 regular season? — probability rises to 29%
The tracked probability rose to 29%, up 4.5 percentage points from 24.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NHL: Players to Record 30+ Goals
- Surge
Will Sam LaPorta finish as a top-12 TE in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability rises to 76%
The tracked probability rose to 76%, up 8.5 percentage points from 67.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 12 Scoring TEs
- Surge
Will Cusco FC be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1? — probability rises to 45.5%
The tracked probability rose to 45.5%, up 20.0 percentage points from 25.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Peru Liga 1: Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will Independiente be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability rises to 49.95%
The tracked probability rose to 49.95%, up 47.3 percentage points from 2.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will Christian McCaffrey finish as a top-5 RB in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability rises to 66.5%
The tracked probability rose to 66.5%, up 10.5 percentage points from 56% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 5 Scoring RBs
- Plunge
Will Club Brugge reach the 2027 UEFA Champions League final? — probability falls to 1%
The tracked probability fell to 1%, down 5.0 percentage points from 6.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: UEFA Champions League: Team to advance to 2027 final
- Plunge
Will Brock Bowers finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 8.95%
The tracked probability fell to 8.95%, down 8.8 percentage points from 17.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Alec Pierce finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 10.75%
The tracked probability fell to 10.75%, down 8.6 percentage points from 19.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Bucky Irving finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 11.45%
The tracked probability fell to 11.45%, down 8.3 percentage points from 19.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will A.J. Brown finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 21.1%
The tracked probability fell to 21.1%, down 6.6 percentage points from 27.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will DJ Moore finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 24.6%
The tracked probability fell to 24.6%, down 3.2 percentage points from 27.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Boulaye Dia score the most goals in the 2026-27 UEFA Europa League? — probability rises to 47.7%
The tracked probability rose to 47.7%, up 44.2 percentage points from 3.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: UEFA Europa League: Top Scorer 2026-27
- Surge
Will Kyle Pitts Sr. finish as a top-12 TE in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability rises to 25.05%
The tracked probability rose to 25.05%, up 21.9 percentage points from 3.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 12 Scoring TEs
- Surge
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 15, 2026? — probability rises to 26.5%
The tracked probability rose to 26.5%, up 4.0 percentage points from 22.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?
- Surge
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on October 16? — probability rises to 97.3%
The tracked probability rose to 97.3%, up 4.3 percentage points from 93% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Highest temperature in Hong Kong on October 16?
- Surge
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on October 16? — probability rises to 96.55%
The tracked probability rose to 96.55%, up 8.9 percentage points from 87.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Highest temperature in Shenzhen on October 16?
- Plunge
Will Josh Jacobs finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 18.2%
The tracked probability fell to 18.2%, down 12.8 percentage points from 31.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Luka Doncic lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 21.9 percentage points from 24.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will William Eklund record 100+ points? — probability falls to 3.15%
The tracked probability fell to 3.15%, down 22.1 percentage points from 25.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NHL: Players to Record 100+ Points
- Surge
Will A.J. Brown have 10+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability rises to 34.55%
The tracked probability rose to 34.55%, up 14.5 percentage points from 20.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 10+ Receiving Touchdowns
- Plunge
Spread: Boluspor (-1.5) — probability falls to 17%
The tracked probability fell to 17%, down 34.2 percentage points from 51.25% in the latest observation window. The cause of this move is not established.
Market: Umraniyespor vs. Boluspor - More Markets
- Surge
Will Corinthians be relegated from the 2026 Brazil Série A? — probability rises to 51.5%
The tracked probability rose to 51.5%, up 9.5 percentage points from 42% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Brazil Série A: Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $3.10 Week of October 12 2026? — probability falls to 35.65%
The tracked probability fell to 35.65%, down 4.7 percentage points from 40.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Natural Gas (NG) hit Week of October 12 2026?
- Surge
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by October 31, 2026? — probability rises to 73.5%
The tracked probability rose to 73.5%, up 3.0 percentage points from 70.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Who will Trump publicly insult by October 31?
- Plunge
Will AmaZulu be relegated from the 2026-27 South Africa Premiership? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 7.5 percentage points from 10.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: South Africa Premiership: Teams relegated (2026-27)
- Surge
Will Corbin Carroll win a 2026 NL Gold Glove Award? — probability rises to 40.5%
The tracked probability rose to 40.5%, up 14.0 percentage points from 26.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 NL Gold Glove Winners
- Plunge
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $336 Week of October 12 2026? — probability falls to 24.5%
The tracked probability fell to 24.5%, down 3.5 percentage points from 28% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Apple (AAPL) hit Week of October 12 2026?