This market will resolve to "Yes" if the named quarterback finishes the 2026-27 NFL regular season (Weeks 1 through 18) ranked among the top 12 quarterbacks by total fantasy points under standard PPR (points-per-reception) scoring per the default scoring of ESPN Fantasy Sports.
Current leader
74.5%
75%
3 outcomes
Will Joe Burrow finish as a top-12 QB in the 2026-27 NFL season?
Will Drake Maye finish as a top-12 QB in the 2026-27 NFL season?
Will Jared Goff finish as a top-12 QB in the 2026-27 NFL season?
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
PlungeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability fell to 50.2%, down 9.8 percentage points from 59.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 60% → 50%
-9.8 ppStory so far
Recently updatedThe tracked probability fell to 50.2%, down 9.8 percentage points from 59.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
A sourced or deterministic market update is available.
Supported by the sources below
What the evidence doesn’t settle
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Public sources opened for this story
No public sources are attached yet.
Odds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 59.95% to 50.2% (-9.75 percentage points), from 2026-10-19T23:45:56.897Z to 2026-10-20T00:17:20.899Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 59.95% → 50.2%
Probability moved from 59.95% to 50.2% (-9.75 percentage points). Observations were 31 minutes 24 seconds apart: 2026-10-19 23:45:56 UTC to 2026-10-20 00:17:20 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 99.5% to 59.85% (-39.65 percentage points), from 2026-10-17T02:00:10.057Z to 2026-10-17T02:19:25.711Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 93.45% to 96.55% (+3.1 percentage points), from 2026-10-16T21:02:01.886Z to 2026-10-16T21:16:52.839Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 87.25% to 93.45% (+6.2 percentage points), from 2026-10-16T20:47:51.055Z to 2026-10-16T21:02:01.886Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 74.95% to 87.25% (+12.3 percentage points), from 2026-10-16T20:00:58.117Z to 2026-10-16T20:16:33.249Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 62.7% to 74.95% (+12.25 percentage points), from 2026-10-16T19:47:11.281Z to 2026-10-16T20:00:58.117Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 74.5% to 62.7% (-11.8 percentage points), from 2026-10-16T19:30:57.337Z to 2026-10-16T19:47:11.281Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 86.5% to 74.5% (-12 percentage points), from 2026-10-16T19:03:02.404Z to 2026-10-16T19:30:57.337Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the named quarterback finishes the 2026-27 NFL regular season (Weeks 1 through 18) ranked among the top 12 quarterbacks by total fantasy points under standard PPR (points-per-reception) scoring per the default scoring of ESPN Fantasy Sports.
Resolves No
Otherwise, that market will resolve to "No".
Only regular-season games count; postseason (playoff) games are excluded. If two or more quarterbacks are tied such that more than 12 would qualify for the top 12, the tie will be broken by higher fantasy points per game average for the 2026 NFL regular season, and if a tie still persists, by last name in alphabetical order, so that exactly 12 quarterbacks are classified as top 12.
If the 2026-27 NFL regular season is cancelled, postponed past January 26, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or the rankings cannot be determined within this timeframe, all markets in this event will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be official season-total statistics as reported by ESPN Fantasy Sports (.
Living timeline · 12 significant updates
Will Drake Maye finish as a top-12 QB in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability falls to 50.2%
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