Living market coverage
Prediction-market movement explanations
The newest sourced PolySays updates about meaningful odds changes, possible catalysts, unresolved signals, and what to watch next.
- Plunge
Will Mitchell Robinson lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.45%
The tracked probability fell to 3.45%, down 30.4 percentage points from 33.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Kyle Pitts Sr. finish as a top-12 TE in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability falls to 3.05%
The tracked probability fell to 3.05%, down 47.1 percentage points from 50.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 12 Scoring TEs
- Plunge
Will Deportivo Garcilaso be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1? — probability falls to 3.1%
The tracked probability fell to 3.1%, down 22.7 percentage points from 25.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Peru Liga 1: Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
CA Osasuna vs. Real Racing Club: Real Racing Club O/U 3.5 — probability falls to 2.25%
The tracked probability fell to 2.25%, down 23.3 percentage points from 25.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: CA Osasuna vs. Real Racing Club - More Markets
- Plunge
Will Quinshon Judkins finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 41.65%
The tracked probability fell to 41.65%, down 4.1 percentage points from 45.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will DeVonta Smith finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 40.75%
The tracked probability fell to 40.75%, down 3.9 percentage points from 44.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Wendell Carter Jr. lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 33.45%
The tracked probability rose to 33.45%, up 30.8 percentage points from 2.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Inde Navarrette be nominated for Best Actress at the 99th Academy Awards? — probability falls to 79.5%
The tracked probability fell to 79.5%, down 6.0 percentage points from 85.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Oscars 2027: Best Actress Nominations
- Plunge
Will A.J. Brown finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 40.85%
The tracked probability fell to 40.85%, down 6.9 percentage points from 47.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $68 in October? — probability falls to 6.5%
The tracked probability fell to 6.5%, down 43.0 percentage points from 49.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit in October 2026?
- Surge
Will Michael Mayer finish as a top-5 TE in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability rises to 22.25%
The tracked probability rose to 22.25%, up 19.4 percentage points from 2.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 5 Scoring TEs
- Plunge
Will Lanús be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability falls to 3.05%
The tracked probability fell to 3.05%, down 47.3 percentage points from 50.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will Aida Hadžialić be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Stockholm? — probability rises to 37.5%
The tracked probability rose to 37.5%, up 3.4 percentage points from 34.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Next Regional Board Chair of Stockholm?
- Plunge
Will the lowest temperature in Munich be 7°C on October 17? — probability falls to 61%
The tracked probability fell to 61%, down 32.5 percentage points from 93.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lowest temperature in Munich on October 17?
- Surge
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 9°C on October 17? — probability rises to 91.5%
The tracked probability rose to 91.5%, up 4.0 percentage points from 87.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lowest temperature in Paris on October 17?
- Plunge
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 17°C on October 17? — probability falls to 93.6%
The tracked probability fell to 93.6%, down 6.3 percentage points from 99.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Highest temperature in Beijing on October 17?
- Plunge
Will Dillon Dingler win a 2026 AL Gold Glove Award? — probability falls to 86.4%
The tracked probability fell to 86.4%, down 6.8 percentage points from 93.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 AL Gold Glove Winners
- Plunge
Will Ezequiel Duran win a 2026 AL Gold Glove Award? — probability falls to 74.55%
The tracked probability fell to 74.55%, down 23.0 percentage points from 97.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 AL Gold Glove Winners
- Plunge
Will Jaylen Brown lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 21.9 percentage points from 24.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Luka Doncic lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 21.3 percentage points from 24.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Tuomas Iisalo win the 2026-27 NBA Coach of the Year? — probability falls to 3.5%
The tracked probability fell to 3.5%, down 42.4 percentage points from 45.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Coach of the Year
- Plunge
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $32 in October? — probability falls to 25.05%
The tracked probability fell to 25.05%, down 24.9 percentage points from 50% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit in October 2026?
- Plunge
Will Emeka Egbuka finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 40.45%
The tracked probability fell to 40.45%, down 6.5 percentage points from 46.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will J.B. Bickerstaff win the 2026-27 NBA Coach of the Year? — probability falls to 4.75%
The tracked probability fell to 4.75%, down 10.0 percentage points from 14.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Coach of the Year
- Surge
Will Masyn Winn win a 2026 NL Gold Glove Award? — probability rises to 70%
The tracked probability rose to 70%, up 11.5 percentage points from 58.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 NL Gold Glove Winners
- Surge
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 4, 2026? — probability rises to 54.75%
The tracked probability rose to 54.75%, up 3.0 percentage points from 51.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?
- Plunge
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026? — probability falls to 32.85%
The tracked probability fell to 32.85%, down 4.1 percentage points from 36.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Elon Musk # tweets October 15 - October 17, 2026?
- Plunge
Will Cusco FC be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 42.5 percentage points from 45.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Peru Liga 1: Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will the price of Solana be above $105 on October 17? — probability rises to 10%
The tracked probability rose to 10%, up 4.5 percentage points from 5.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Solana above ___ on October 17?
- Plunge
Will CeeDee Lamb have 1,399.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability falls to 45%
The tracked probability fell to 45%, down 6.0 percentage points from 51% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: CeeDee Lamb 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Yards
- Plunge
Will Torreense reach the 2027 UEFA Europa League quarterfinal? — probability falls to 12.9%
The tracked probability fell to 12.9%, down 14.6 percentage points from 27.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: UEFA Europa League: Team to advance to 2027 quarters
- Surge
Will Fnatic make a roster change by December? — probability rises to 87.85%
The tracked probability rose to 87.85%, up 13.0 percentage points from 74.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Which Teams Will Make a Roster Change Before December?
- Plunge
Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: Brighton & Hove Albion FC O/U 5.5 — probability falls to 1.25%
The tracked probability fell to 1.25%, down 23.8 percentage points from 25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Crystal Palace FC - More Markets
- Surge
Will Rome Odunze finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 48.05%
The tracked probability rose to 48.05%, up 6.6 percentage points from 41.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will OXY play for Cloud9 in 2027? — probability rises to 54.5%
The tracked probability rose to 54.5%, up 11.5 percentage points from 43% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: VALORANT Offseason: OXY Next Team
- Plunge
Will DeVonta Smith finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 44.65%
The tracked probability fell to 44.65%, down 4.0 percentage points from 48.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Omarion Hampton finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 43.55%
The tracked probability fell to 43.55%, down 5.9 percentage points from 49.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will "Whalefall" score at least 70 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? — probability falls to 93.1%
The tracked probability fell to 93.1%, down 3.6 percentage points from 96.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: "Whalefall" Rotten Tomatoes Score?
- Surge
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on October 17? — probability rises to 63%
The tracked probability rose to 63%, up 16.5 percentage points from 46.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: XRP above ___ on October 17?
- Plunge
Will Bucky Irving finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 33.75%
The tracked probability fell to 33.75%, down 4.9 percentage points from 38.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will A.J. Brown finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 47.75%
The tracked probability rose to 47.75%, up 9.2 percentage points from 38.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Ezequiel Duran win a 2026 AL Gold Glove Award? — probability rises to 97.55%
The tracked probability rose to 97.55%, up 3.8 percentage points from 93.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 AL Gold Glove Winners
- Surge
Will Lanús be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability rises to 50.35%
The tracked probability rose to 50.35%, up 47.3 percentage points from 3.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on October 17? — probability rises to 97.55%
The tracked probability rose to 97.55%, up 5.0 percentage points from 92.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Highest temperature in Ankara on October 17?
- Surge
Will Randal Kolo Muani score the most goals in the 2026-27 UEFA Europa League? — probability rises to 28.25%
The tracked probability rose to 28.25%, up 23.1 percentage points from 5.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: UEFA Europa League: Top Scorer 2026-27
- Plunge
Will Anthony Davis lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.6%
The tracked probability fell to 3.6%, down 22.1 percentage points from 25.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Zach Edey lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.15%
The tracked probability fell to 3.15%, down 30.8 percentage points from 33.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Josh Giddey lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.15%
The tracked probability fell to 3.15%, down 23.3 percentage points from 26.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will DK Metcalf finish as a top-5 WR in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability rises to 45.2%
The tracked probability rose to 45.2%, up 42.1 percentage points from 3.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 5 Scoring WRs
- Plunge
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Coventry City FC: Tottenham Hotspur FC O/U 5.5 — probability falls to 1.25%
The tracked probability fell to 1.25%, down 48.3 percentage points from 49.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Coventry City FC - More Markets