This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from October 15 12:00 PM ET to October 17, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
Current leader
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1 outcome
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026?
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
PlungeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability fell to 0.05%, down 4.2 percentage points from 4.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 4% → 0%
-4.2 ppStory so far
Recently updatedThe tracked probability fell to 0.05%, down 4.2 percentage points from 4.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
A sourced or deterministic market update is available.
Supported by the sources below
What the evidence doesn’t settle
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Public sources opened for this story
No public sources are attached yet.
Odds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 4.25% to 0.05% (-4.2 percentage points), from 2026-10-17T15:47:16.508Z to 2026-10-17T16:00:49.504Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 4.25% → 0.05%
Probability moved from 4.25% to 0.05% (-4.2 percentage points). Observations were 13 minutes 33 seconds apart: 2026-10-17 15:47:16 UTC to 2026-10-17 16:00:49 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 15.55% to 4.25% (-11.3 percentage points), from 2026-10-17T15:30:09.312Z to 2026-10-17T15:47:16.508Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 23.75% to 15.55% (-8.2 percentage points), from 2026-10-17T15:17:06.768Z to 2026-10-17T15:30:09.312Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 30.7% to 23.75% (-6.95 percentage points), from 2026-10-17T15:02:32.057Z to 2026-10-17T15:17:06.768Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 36.95% to 32.85% (-4.1 percentage points), from 2026-10-17T14:30:22.526Z to 2026-10-17T14:47:50.408Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 40.25% to 36.95% (-3.3 percentage points), from 2026-10-17T14:16:41.602Z to 2026-10-17T14:30:22.526Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 44.25% to 39.35% (-4.9 percentage points), from 2026-10-17T13:46:47.298Z to 2026-10-17T14:01:03.484Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 49.45% to 44.25% (-5.2 percentage points), from 2026-10-17T13:32:19.243Z to 2026-10-17T13:46:47.298Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from October 15 12:00 PM ET to October 17, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data".
If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Living timeline · 12 significant updates
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026? — probability falls to 0.05%
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