Living market coverage
Prediction-market movement explanations
The newest sourced PolySays updates about meaningful odds changes, possible catalysts, unresolved signals, and what to watch next.
- Surge
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on October 18? — probability rises to 46%
The tracked probability rose to 46%, up 7.0 percentage points from 39% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Highest temperature in Wuhan on October 18?
- Plunge
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $186 in October? — probability falls to 8.5%
The tracked probability fell to 8.5%, down 3.0 percentage points from 11.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in October 2026?
- Plunge
Will DJ Moore finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 40.35%
The tracked probability fell to 40.35%, down 9.2 percentage points from 49.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Brock Bowers finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 32.55%
The tracked probability fell to 32.55%, down 10.3 percentage points from 42.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will DeVonta Smith finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 34.9%
The tracked probability fell to 34.9%, down 7.1 percentage points from 42% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Omarion Hampton finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 34.2%
The tracked probability fell to 34.2%, down 10.5 percentage points from 44.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Tuomas Iisalo win the 2026-27 NBA Coach of the Year? — probability falls to 3.6%
The tracked probability fell to 3.6%, down 8.1 percentage points from 11.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Coach of the Year
- Plunge
Will Deportivo Garcilaso be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1? — probability falls to 10.55%
The tracked probability fell to 10.55%, down 5.3 percentage points from 15.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Peru Liga 1: Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will Alianza Lima be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1? — probability falls to 13.1%
The tracked probability fell to 13.1%, down 9.9 percentage points from 23% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Peru Liga 1: Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will Anthony Davis lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 36.45%
The tracked probability rose to 36.45%, up 18.1 percentage points from 18.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Zach Edey lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 16.8%
The tracked probability rose to 16.8%, up 13.2 percentage points from 3.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Christian McCaffrey finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 48%
The tracked probability rose to 48%, up 47.9 percentage points from 0.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on October 18? — probability rises to 86%
The tracked probability rose to 86%, up 5.0 percentage points from 81% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on October 18?
- Surge
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on October 17? — probability rises to 99.35%
The tracked probability rose to 99.35%, up 7.2 percentage points from 92.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on October 17?
- Plunge
Will "Sense and Sensibility" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 7m and 8m? — probability falls to 86.5%
The tracked probability fell to 86.5%, down 5.0 percentage points from 91.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: "Sense and Sensibility" Opening Weekend Box Office
- Surge
Will Lauri Markkanen lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 33.35%
The tracked probability rose to 33.35%, up 16.8 percentage points from 16.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Hannes Steinbach lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 36.4%
The tracked probability rose to 36.4%, up 18.4 percentage points from 18.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Jaylen Brown lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 31.85%
The tracked probability rose to 31.85%, up 15.8 percentage points from 16% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will "Pragmata" win Ultimate Game of the Year at the 2026 Golden Joystick Awards? — probability falls to 4.05%
The tracked probability fell to 4.05%, down 11.6 percentage points from 15.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Golden Joystick Awards: Ultimate Game of the Year Winner
- Surge
Will Josh Giddey lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 18.1%
The tracked probability rose to 18.1%, up 14.5 percentage points from 3.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Google have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 12? — probability rises to 85%
The tracked probability rose to 85%, up 10.3 percentage points from 74.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: #2 AI lab by OpenRouter market share week of October 12?
- Surge
Will Hawi Feysa win the 2026 Women's Chicago Marathon? — probability rises to 99.95%
The tracked probability rose to 99.95%, up 40.8 percentage points from 59.2% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Chicago Marathon Women's Winner
- Surge
Will "The Blood of Dawnwalker" win Ultimate Game of the Year at the 2026 Golden Joystick Awards? — probability rises to 6.25%
The tracked probability rose to 6.25%, up 5.8 percentage points from 0.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Golden Joystick Awards: Ultimate Game of the Year Winner
- Surge
Will Alex Sarr lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 33.4%
The tracked probability rose to 33.4%, up 16.6 percentage points from 16.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Luka Doncic lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 35.55%
The tracked probability rose to 35.55%, up 32.0 percentage points from 3.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Torreense reach the 2027 UEFA Europa League quarterfinal? — probability rises to 28%
The tracked probability rose to 28%, up 15.5 percentage points from 12.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: UEFA Europa League: Team to advance to 2027 quarters
- Plunge
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on October 19? — probability falls to 1.5%
The tracked probability fell to 1.5%, down 47.9 percentage points from 49.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Solana price on October 19?
- Surge
Will Ezequiel Duran win a 2026 AL Gold Glove Award? — probability rises to 71.75%
The tracked probability rose to 71.75%, up 4.7 percentage points from 67.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 AL Gold Glove Winners
- Plunge
Will Bucky Irving finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 5.45%
The tracked probability fell to 5.45%, down 7.0 percentage points from 12.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Alianza Lima be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1? — probability rises to 23%
The tracked probability rose to 23%, up 11.2 percentage points from 11.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Peru Liga 1: Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will Anthony Davis lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 18.35%
The tracked probability rose to 18.35%, up 14.8 percentage points from 3.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Zach Edey lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.6%
The tracked probability fell to 3.6%, down 13.3 percentage points from 16.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will P.J. Washington lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 25.1%
The tracked probability rose to 25.1%, up 21.5 percentage points from 3.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will it rain in Dallas, TX on October 17? — probability rises to 50%
The tracked probability rose to 50%, up 48.9 percentage points from 1.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Where will it rain on October 17?
- Surge
Will "Sense and Sensibility" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 7m and 8m? — probability rises to 91.5%
The tracked probability rose to 91.5%, up 7.5 percentage points from 84% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: "Sense and Sensibility" Opening Weekend Box Office
- Surge
Inter Milano U23 vs. SS Monopoli: 1st Half O/U 2.5 — probability rises to 100%
The tracked probability rose to 100%, up 10.0 percentage points from 90% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Inter Milano U23 vs. SS Monopoli - More Markets
- Plunge
Will Jalen Hurts have 199.5+ rushing yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability falls to 45.5%
The tracked probability fell to 45.5%, down 14.0 percentage points from 59.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: Jalen Hurts 2026-27 Regular Season Rushing Yards
- Plunge
Will Hawi Feysa win the 2026 Women's Chicago Marathon? — probability falls to 59.2%
The tracked probability fell to 59.2%, down 39.9 percentage points from 99.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Chicago Marathon Women's Winner
- Plunge
Will Nic Claxton lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.6%
The tracked probability fell to 3.6%, down 13.3 percentage points from 16.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Google have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 12? — probability rises to 74.65%
The tracked probability rose to 74.65%, up 16.3 percentage points from 58.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: #2 AI lab by OpenRouter market share week of October 12?
- Surge
Will it rain in Houston, TX on October 17? — probability rises to 49.95%
The tracked probability rose to 49.95%, up 48.9 percentage points from 1.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Where will it rain on October 17?
- Plunge
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on October 17? — probability falls to 92.15%
The tracked probability fell to 92.15%, down 5.9 percentage points from 98.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on October 17?
- Surge
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on September 26? — probability rises to 88%
The tracked probability rose to 88%, up 8.0 percentage points from 80% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...?
- Volume
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? — probability holds at 7.85%
Probability remained at 7.85%. Reported rolling 24-hour volume changed from $66.19 to $11,942.08. The cause is not established.
Market: Presidential Election Winner 2028
- Plunge
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 4, 2026? — probability falls to 49.9%
The tracked probability fell to 49.9%, down 3.4 percentage points from 53.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?
- Plunge
Will Josh Giddey lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.6%
The tracked probability fell to 3.6%, down 14.7 percentage points from 18.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Hannes Steinbach lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 18.05%
The tracked probability rose to 18.05%, up 14.5 percentage points from 3.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Lauri Markkanen lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 16.55%
The tracked probability rose to 16.55%, up 13.0 percentage points from 3.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Jaylen Brown lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 16%
The tracked probability rose to 16%, up 12.4 percentage points from 3.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Alex Sarr lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 16.8%
The tracked probability rose to 16.8%, up 13.3 percentage points from 3.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader