By PolySays EditorialUpdated Editorial method
This market will resolve according to the listed athlete who wins the 2026 Women’s Chicago Marathon.
Current leader
100%
100%
1 outcome
Will Hawi Feysa win the 2026 Women's Chicago Marathon?
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
SurgeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability rose to 99.95%, up 40.8 percentage points from 59.2% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 59% → 100%
+40.8 ppStory so far
Recently updatedThe tracked probability rose to 99.95%, up 40.8 percentage points from 59.2% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
A sourced or deterministic market update is available.
Supported by the sources below
What the evidence doesn’t settle
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Public sources opened for this story
No public sources are attached yet.
Odds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 59.2% to 99.95% (+40.75 percentage points), from 2026-10-17T20:00:09.081Z to 2026-10-17T20:16:35.849Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 59.2% → 99.95%
Probability moved from 59.2% to 99.95% (+40.75 percentage points). Observations were 16 minutes 27 seconds apart: 2026-10-17 20:00:09 UTC to 2026-10-17 20:16:35 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 99.05% to 59.2% (-39.85 percentage points), from 2026-10-17T19:32:27.756Z to 2026-10-17T20:00:09.081Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
Resolves No
If this athlete is eliminated from contention for winning this event based on the official rules of the Chicago Marathon, this market will resolve to “No.” In case of a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the athlete whose last name comes first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve according to the listed athlete who wins the 2026 Women’s Chicago Marathon. If an unlisted athlete wins the 2026 Women’s Chicago Marathon, this market will resolve to “Other.” If no winner is announced by October 18, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source will be the first official results published by the Chicago Marathon (.
Living timeline · 5 significant updates
Will Hawi Feysa win the 2026 Women's Chicago Marathon? — probability rises to 99.95%
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