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Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...?

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This market will resolve to “Yes” if Saudi Arabia takes a qualifying military action against Yemen on the specified date, Yemen Standard Time.

Current leader

81.5%

82%

Largest 24h move-9.5 pp 24h
24h volume
$8.4K
Liquidity
$14.3K
Scheduled close

Top candidates

3 outcomes

  • Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on September 26?

    +5.5 pp 24h82%
  • Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on September 27?

    -9.5 pp 24h46%
  • Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on September 20?

    -0.4 pp 24h0%

Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).

Latest update

SurgeMonitoring only

Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on September 26? — probability rises to 81.5%

The tracked probability rose to 81.5%, up 7.5 percentage points from 74% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.

Yes: 74% → 82%

+7.5 pp
Sources and full timeline

Story so far

Recently updated

The tracked probability rose to 81.5%, up 7.5 percentage points from 74% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.

A sourced or deterministic market update is available.

Known catalysts

Supported by the sources below

  • No catalyst has been confirmed yet.

Unresolved questions

What the evidence doesn’t settle

  • Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.

People and institutions to watch

Nothing specific is being tracked yet.

Source trail

Public sources opened for this story

No public sources are attached yet.

Odds chart

Candidate probability over time

Living timeline

Significant updates

  1. Coverage updated

    Observed movement

    Observed probability rose from 74% to 81.5% (+7.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T02:00:28.960Z to 2026-10-21T02:30:47.318Z (UTC).

    Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.

    The measured move

    Yes: 74% → 81.5%

    What changed

    Probability moved from 74% to 81.5% (+7.5 percentage points). Observations were 30 minutes 18 seconds apart: 2026-10-21 02:00:28 UTC to 2026-10-21 02:30:47 UTC.

    What to watch next

    Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.

    Sources

    No external sources are attached yet.

  2. Coverage updated

    Observed movement

    Observed probability rose from 32% to 48% (+16 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T12:46:49.756Z to 2026-10-20T13:00:19.880Z (UTC).

  3. Coverage updated

    Observed movement

    Observed probability fell from 55.5% to 32% (-23.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T12:30:12.712Z to 2026-10-20T12:46:49.756Z (UTC).

  4. Coverage updated

    Observed movement

    Observed probability fell from 1.1% to 0.45% (-0.65 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T08:30:12.976Z to 2026-10-20T08:45:38.253Z (UTC).

  5. Coverage updated

    Observed movement

    Observed probability rose from 73% to 76% (+3 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T03:21:30.605Z to 2026-10-20T03:32:32.413Z (UTC).

  6. Coverage updated

    Observed movement

    Observed probability rose from 53.5% to 58% (+4.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-19T15:15:20.934Z to 2026-10-19T15:32:13.932Z (UTC).

  7. Coverage updated

    Observed movement

    Observed probability rose from 54% to 78% (+24 percentage points), from 2026-10-19T15:15:20.934Z to 2026-10-19T15:32:13.932Z (UTC).

  8. Coverage updated

    Observed movement

    Observed probability rose from 50.5% to 53.5% (+3 percentage points), from 2026-10-19T15:01:18.711Z to 2026-10-19T15:15:20.934Z (UTC).

Market rules, made readable

Official description

How this market is decided

Read the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.

See what is changing

Resolves Yes

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Saudi Arabia takes a qualifying military action against Yemen on the specified date, Yemen Standard Time.

Resolves No

Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Saudi Arabia, that directly impacts Yemen.

An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The qualifying military action must be carried out by the armed forces of Saudi Arabia. Actions carried out by private military contractors, mercenaries, or proxy forces will not qualify.

Where a qualifying action is carried out in the course of a coalition or multinational operation, it will qualify only if the armed forces of Saudi Arabia directly conducted the strike.

Read the complete resolution rules

The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g.

MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action.

Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Yemen do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Yemen” refers to the terrestrial territory of Yemen, including its internal waters. Yemen’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed.

Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Yemen as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources.

Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Yemen Standard Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action.

If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time.

No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Saudi Arabia and Yemen, the Houthis, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Living timeline · 12 significant updates

Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on September 26? — probability rises to 81.5%

Keep exploring

Surge

Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on September 26? — probability rises to 81.5%

Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...?

Surge

Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on September 27? — probability rises to 48%

Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...?

Plunge

Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on September 27? — probability falls to 32%

Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...?

Volume

Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on September 20? — probability falls to 0.45%

Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...?

Surge

Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on September 26? — probability rises to 76%

Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...?

Surge

Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on September 27? — probability rises to 58%

Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...?

Surge

Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on September 26? — probability rises to 78%

Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...?

Surge

Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on September 27? — probability rises to 53.5%

Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...?

Surge

Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on September 26? — probability rises to 57.5%

Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...?

Plunge

Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on September 26? — probability falls to 54%

Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...?

Surge

Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on September 27? — probability rises to 46%

Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...?

Plunge

Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on September 27? — probability falls to 45%

Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...?

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