closedWeather

Where will it rain on October 17?

Post

This market will resolve to "Yes" for each listed city that records measurable precipitation on October 17, 2026.

Current leader

100%

Largest 24h move+72.0 pp 24h

24h volume: $1.1K
Liquidity: $0
Closed: Oct 18, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC

Top candidates

6 outcomes

Will it rain in Phoenix, AZ on October 17?
+72.0 pp 24h100%
Will it rain in New York, NY on October 17?
-49.4 pp 24h100%
Will it rain in Chicago, IL on October 17?
-49.9 pp 24h0%
Will it rain in San Francisco, CA on October 17?
-49.5 pp 24h0%
Will it rain in Dallas, TX on October 17?
-25.0 pp 24h0%

Show all outcomes

Will it rain in Houston, TX on October 17?
0%
-25.0 pp

Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).

Latest update

SurgeMonitoring onlyOct 18

Will it rain in New York, NY on October 17? — probability rises to 100%

The tracked probability rose to 100%, up 50.0 percentage points from 50.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.

Yes: 50% → 100%

+50.0 pp

Sources and full timeline

Story so far

Known catalysts

Supported by the sources below

No catalyst has been confirmed yet.

Unresolved questions

What the evidence doesn’t settle

Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.

People and institutions to watch

Nothing specific is being tracked yet.

Source trail

Public sources opened for this story

No public sources are attached yet.

Odds chart

Candidate probability over time

Living timeline

Significant updates

Coverage updated Oct 18, 2026, 8:18 PM UTC
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 50.05% to 100% (+49.95 percentage points), from 2026-10-18T20:01:32.936Z to 2026-10-18T20:17:48.325Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 50.05% → 100%
What changed
Probability moved from 50.05% to 100% (+49.95 percentage points). Observations were 16 minutes 15 seconds apart: 2026-10-18 20:01:32 UTC to 2026-10-18 20:17:48 UTC.
What to watch next
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
Sources
No external sources are attached yet.
Coverage updated Oct 18, 2026, 8:02 PM UTC
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 24.95% to 0% (-24.95 percentage points), from 2026-10-18T19:45:35.242Z to 2026-10-18T20:01:32.936Z (UTC).
Coverage updated Oct 18, 2026, 8:02 PM UTC
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 25% to 0% (-25 percentage points), from 2026-10-18T19:45:35.242Z to 2026-10-18T20:01:32.936Z (UTC).
Coverage updated Oct 18, 2026, 6:19 PM UTC
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 99.55% to 52.5% (-47.05 percentage points), from 2026-10-18T17:46:01.377Z to 2026-10-18T18:17:03.867Z (UTC).
Coverage updated Oct 18, 2026, 6:01 PM UTC
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 0.45% to 25% (+24.55 percentage points), from 2026-10-18T17:46:01.377Z to 2026-10-18T18:01:23.950Z (UTC).
Coverage updated Oct 18, 2026, 6:01 PM UTC
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 0.45% to 25% (+24.55 percentage points), from 2026-10-18T17:46:01.377Z to 2026-10-18T18:01:23.950Z (UTC).
Coverage updated Oct 18, 2026, 8:46 AM UTC
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 12.55% to 0.5% (-12.05 percentage points), from 2026-10-18T08:31:50.160Z to 2026-10-18T08:45:07.910Z (UTC).
Coverage updated Oct 18, 2026, 8:32 AM UTC
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 75% to 99.5% (+24.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-18T08:16:02.908Z to 2026-10-18T08:31:50.160Z (UTC).

Market rules, made readable

Official description

How this market is decided

Read the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.

See what is changing

Resolves Yes

This market will resolve to "Yes" for each listed city that records measurable precipitation on October 17, 2026.

Resolves No

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Measurable precipitation means 0.01 inches or more as reported by the PRECIPITATION (IN) figure in the NWS Daily Climate Report (CLI) for the city's station. A report of trace ("T") does not qualify. The PRECIPITATION (IN) figure measures total liquid-equivalent precipitation and does not distinguish between precipitation types.

The observation period is the NWS climate day for each station: midnight to midnight local standard time. The final CLI report for a climate day is issued the following morning. Each city is an independent market. Any number of cities may resolve "Yes", including all of them or none of them. This market will resolve according to the NWS Daily Climate Report as published by 2:00 PM ET on the day following the observation date.

Read the complete resolution rules

If multiple versions of the report are issued, the last version published before that time governs. If no figure has been published by that time, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the NWS Daily Climate Report (CLI) for each city's station.