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"Sense and Sensibility" Opening Weekend Box Office

This market will resolve according to how much "Sense and Sensibility" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend.

Current leader

100%

Largest 24h move+4.5 pp 24h

24h volume: $1.4K
Liquidity: $0
Closed: Oct 18, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC

Top candidates

2 outcomes

Will "Sense and Sensibility" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 7m and 8m?
+4.5 pp 24h100%
Will "Sense and Sensibility" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 8m?
-0.2 pp 24h0%

Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).

Latest update

PlungeMonitoring onlyOct 18

Will "Sense and Sensibility" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 8m? — probability falls to 1.4%

The tracked probability fell to 1.4%, down 4.4 percentage points from 5.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.

Yes: 6% → 1%

-4.3 pp

Sources and full timeline

Story so far

Known catalysts

Supported by the sources below

No catalyst has been confirmed yet.

Unresolved questions

What the evidence doesn’t settle

Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.

People and institutions to watch

Nothing specific is being tracked yet.

Source trail

Public sources opened for this story

No public sources are attached yet.

Odds chart

Candidate probability over time

Living timeline

Significant updates

Coverage updated Oct 18, 2026, 2:48 PM UTC
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 5.75% to 1.4% (-4.35 percentage points), from 2026-10-18T14:30:36.489Z to 2026-10-18T14:46:44.139Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 5.75% → 1.4%
What changed
Probability moved from 5.75% to 1.4% (-4.35 percentage points). Observations were 16 minutes 8 seconds apart: 2026-10-18 14:30:36 UTC to 2026-10-18 14:46:44 UTC.
What to watch next
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
Sources
No external sources are attached yet.
Coverage updated Oct 18, 2026, 11:48 AM UTC
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 89.5% to 93% (+3.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-18T11:31:36.134Z to 2026-10-18T11:47:40.733Z (UTC).
Coverage updated Oct 18, 2026, 10:31 AM UTC
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 89.5% to 94% (+4.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-18T10:15:54.192Z to 2026-10-18T10:30:54.974Z (UTC).
Coverage updated Oct 18, 2026, 9:03 AM UTC
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 1.75% to 5.1% (+3.35 percentage points), from 2026-10-18T08:45:07.910Z to 2026-10-18T09:02:00.719Z (UTC).
Coverage updated Oct 18, 2026, 6:02 AM UTC
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 87% to 90% (+3 percentage points), from 2026-10-18T05:46:29.579Z to 2026-10-18T06:02:27.462Z (UTC).
Coverage updated Oct 18, 2026, 3:18 AM UTC
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 83.5% to 87% (+3.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-18T03:01:03.291Z to 2026-10-18T03:15:32.630Z (UTC).
Coverage updated Oct 17, 2026, 10:47 PM UTC
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 79.5% to 83.5% (+4 percentage points), from 2026-10-17T22:31:13.091Z to 2026-10-17T22:46:51.520Z (UTC).
Coverage updated Oct 17, 2026, 10:02 PM UTC
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 8.15% to 4.25% (-3.9 percentage points), from 2026-10-17T21:45:43.728Z to 2026-10-17T22:02:26.526Z (UTC).

Market rules, made readable

Official description

How this market is decided

Read the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.

See what is changing

This market will resolve according to how much "Sense and Sensibility" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers ( page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (October 16 - 18) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.

Read the complete resolution rules

If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both and have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by October 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

Maps and resolution sources

Living timeline · 12 significant updates

Will "Sense and Sensibility" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 8m? — probability falls to 1.4%

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